Russian Black Sea Fleet leaves Crimea. Russia amasses forces for offensive in Lyman-Kupyansk direction. Weekly military results
Major part of the Russian Black Sea Fleet was redeployed to Novorossiysk and Feodosia. This suggests that Ukraine, as a state that does not have its own navy, was able to force the Russian Black Sea Fleet out of Sevastopol by other means, and secure the ships in the "grain corridor"
Serhiy Zgurets, Ukrainian journalist and military expert, gave his assessment of the recent war developments.
Russia keeps accumulating forces on the Lyman-Kupyansk direction
Russia continues to amass forces and reserves in the Lyman-Kupyansk direction. The invaders also continue to use aircraft to strike bridges. In particular, 6 bridges crossing the Oskil River have been destroyed recently. All of this indicates that the Russian troops are planning to carry out offensives in this area of the frontline to push Ukrainian troops beyond the Zherebets River and further beyond the Oskil River. The main goal of the occupation forces is to reach the administrative borders of the Luhansk region. The Russians have now amassed over 110,000 troops in this section of the frontline.
The spokesman for this area, Yevlash, informed about this. According to him, the dynamics of the fighting in the Lyman-Kupyansk sector is more active than near Bakhmut. Recently, the Russian troops attempted to conduct an assault near Makiivka and attempted to attack Synkivka. However, these hostile advances on Synkivka were prevented by a counterattack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Near Makiivka, Russia advanced no more than 100 meters, but I think this situation will be corrected by Ukraine's army in the future. Prior to these events, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the Lyman-Kupyansk direction and met with the commanders of the brigades operating in this area. It is understood that this area will be relevant to the Russian enemy in the near future. The task for the Armed Forces remains to deter the enemy troops and inflict maximum losses.
Map of combat actions in the Lyman-Kupyansk direction as of October 6
Situation in the Bakhmut direction
The number of Wagner PMC fighters who have returned and are taking part in the fighting in the Bakhmut sector is not critical. Russia's Akhmat and Storm Z units, as well as paratroopers, continue to operate near Bakhmut. In fact, Russia continues its efforts to hold this entire section of the frontline - Andriivka, Klishchiivka and Kurdiumivka.
Now there are battles for the railroad. There is information that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have crossed this railroad, but according to other sources, this is not true. This railroad runs behind Andriivka, Klishchiivka and close to Kurdiumivka. Now these railroad tracks are the main line of defense of Russia. In the battles near Bakhmut, Ukraine's army is focusing on artillery. That is, if to take into account the statements of Ukrainian commanders, the Armed Forces continue to cut the road from Bakhmut to the south through fire control.
Map of combat actions in the Bakhmut sector as of October 6
Situation on Ukraine’s southern front
The Russian troops tried to counterattack near Pryiutne. The entire frontline area from Pryiutne to Kopani has remained unchanged for over three weeks. The Russian invaders have built a strong line of defense there and control the dominant heights. Now the main efforts of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are concentrated on the direction from Robotyne to Tokmak. All the attention and forces of both sides are focused around Robotyne.
Map of combat actions on the Southern Front as of October 6
As for Novoprokopivka, Ukraine's army was in the north of the settlement. Then, after Russian counterattacks, Ukrainian units were forced to withdraw. Now Ukraine is gathering its forces and preparing to push the enemy back. Such actions continue in the direction of Novoprokopivka and Verbove. The Ukrainian Armed Forces also continue to attack between these settlements. Fighting continues for the dominant heights, which will then provide fire control in this area. Russian fortifications around Novoprokopivka are very strong. That's why its fortifications, minefields and aircraft do not allow Ukraine to advance quickly. In addition, this front line covers an area of 10 by 12 kilometers. This wedge of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which has simply bitten into Russia's defense, poses a flanking threat. Therefore, over the past week, significant Russia's potential on the flanks has been destroyed. This threat has been significantly reduced, but Ukraine needs to expand this section of the front in order to simplify the line of defense.
Russia builds new logistics routes on the temporarily occupied territories
The yellow line on the infographic is the 250 km of railroad that the Russians are trying to build. They are trying to ensure uninterrupted supply of the occupation forces. There is a highway from Rostov-on-Don to Donetsk that they use to supply their troops. Then this road goes through Volnovakha, which is within the reach of Ukrainian artillery. Therefore, they want to bypass Volnovakha a little bit lower and build a new railroad, which will be the main logistics for their army.
The Ukrainian side realizes that this railroad could be under its attack. However, it also understands that the more such logistics routes are created, the more ammunition will have to be used. Therefore, on the one hand, the invaders understand that the Kerch bridge will not function, and on the other hand, their attempts to create new logistics routes must be neutralized by the Ukraine Armed Forces right now.
Russians plan to build a new railroad in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine
Russian Black Sea Fleet leaves Crimea
Sevastopol was the main base for the Russian Black Sea Fleet. After the successful actions of Ukrainian Armed Forces, there are no Russian warships left in Sevastopol. Russians are relocating all their warships to Novorossiysk. In particular, three submarines, two frigates, six landing ships, one patrol ship and two small missile ships were relocated there. In other words, basically the entire potential of the Russian Black Sea Fleet was redeployed to Novorossiysk and partially to Feodosia. This suggests that Ukraine, as a country that does not have its own navy, was able to force the Russian Black Sea Fleet out of Sevastopol by other means and secure the ships that sail the "grain corridor."