Can Ukraine leverage Transnistria's energy crisis for strategic gains against Moscow?

The author of the Resurgam Telegram channel has discussed Ukraine’s potential non-military strategies in dealing with the neighboring Moscow-backed region.

Many people have likely noticed recent news about gas shortages in Transnistria, its struggles with electricity supply, and the subsequent challenges for local industries. This has triggered discussions along the lines of: "What if…?"

The primary question is whether Ukraine can utilize Transnistria’s energy crisis to advance its broader strategic goals against Moscow. Specifically, this raises the question: "Can Ukraine use non-military methods to bring about economic and humanitarian collapse in the unrecognized quasi-state of the PMR (Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic also known as Transnistria)?"

Here’s my subjective view: hypothetically – yes. Practically – no.

Let’s start with the hypothetical scenario.

Ukraine could convince Moldovan and Romanian officials that this is a rare opportunity to dismantle an unlawful quasi-state entity, which has been a regional troublemaker, using non-military methods. This would involve reinforcing the energy crisis with a comprehensive economic blockade.

Ukraine could argue that as long as it stands firm against Moscow, Chișinău faces minimal risks from Russia. The risks to President Sandu and her administration wouldn’t go beyond what they already encounter (election interference, destabilization attempts, etc.).

The actual risk from Moscow is negligible because military planes like the Il-76 cannot reach Chișinău Airport or any other PMR airport with "little green men." Direct actions like missile strikes are also highly unlikely, especially since Moldova is shielded by Ukrainian territory.

According to the Resurgam Telegram channel, recent reports about gas shortages in Transnistria, compounded by its struggles with electricity supply and the subsequent challenges faced by local industries, have sparked discussions along the lines of: “What if…?”

The central question posed is whether Ukraine can leverage Transnistria’s energy crisis to further its strategic objectives against Moscow. Specifically, the question arises: “Can Ukraine employ non-military methods to precipitate economic and humanitarian collapse in the unrecognized quasi-state of the PMR (Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic, also known as Transnistria)?”

Resurgam offers a subjective view: hypothetically – yes; practically – no.

Hypothetical scenario

Ukraine might attempt to persuade Moldovan and Romanian officials that this is a unique opportunity to dismantle the quasi-state using non-military measures. The strategy would involve exacerbating the energy crisis with a comprehensive economic blockade.

Ukraine could argue that while it remains resilient against Moscow, Chișinău would face minimal risks from Russia. The risks to President Maia Sandu’s administration, such as election interference or destabilization attempts, would not exceed those already present.

Moreover, Moscow’s ability to retaliate is limited. Military aircraft like the Il-76 cannot access Chișinău Airport or any PMR airport to deploy forces such as "little green men." Similarly, missile strikes are highly improbable, as Moldova benefits from the protective buffer of Ukrainian territory.

According to the Resurgam Telegram channel, a potential strategy for addressing the Transnistrian issue might look something like this:

A simple plan

Introduce economic and trade isolation of the PMR, impose an energy blockade, and induce industrial collapse, thereby triggering a social and humanitarian crisis. In the aftermath, offer the PMR reintegration into Moldova under conditions of cultural autonomy, similar to the arrangement with Gagauzia. This would involve disbanding paramilitary groups, disarming Moscow’s forces in the region, and implementing necessary structural measures.

A historical parallel can be drawn to the unification of East and West Germany, where the economic and industrial collapse of East Germany under communist policies led to dangerous social unrest, forcing the political elite to pursue reunification with West Germany.

Similarly, the ongoing energy crisis in Transnistria could create the conditions for dialogue, potentially incorporating Ukraine’s strategic demands on various issues.

But reality looks different

The Moldovan government is unlikely to take radical actions without first gauging Romania’s stance. However, Romania remains hesitant, at least until its own presidential elections are concluded.

Additionally, President Maia Sandu is cautious about the upcoming Moldovan parliamentary elections. Residents of Transnistria now hold voting rights, and deepening the region’s crisis could provoke resentment that translates into electoral backlash against Sandu’s party.

As such, Moldova’s government appears motivated to resolve the PMR’s energy challenges, ensuring it doesn’t provoke “electoral aggression” among typically passive voters in Transnistria. This would avoid a scenario in which these voters, who otherwise abstain, participate in protest against Sandu’s administration.

The paradox

Despite the strategic opportunities posed by escalating the PMR’s crisis, Moldova may instead choose to address Transnistria’s energy problems. This approach could allow Chișinău to briefly assert authority before seeking a resolution.

This dynamic creates a cycle of conflicting interests: while escalating the crisis might strategically weaken the PMR, Moldova’s domestic and electoral considerations push it toward stabilizing the situation.

Ultimately, there is a slim chance that external pressures or missteps by the PMR leadership — such as refusing reverse gas supplies from Europe as proposed by Chișinău — could hasten its collapse. However, the overall likelihood of such an outcome remains low.