U.S. halt in aid to Ukraine could force Europe to contribute up to $350 billion

A new analysis by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) warns that if Washington withdraws its support, European countries will have to significantly boost their military assistance to Kyiv, with estimates ranging from $100 billion to $350 billion, depending on battlefield developments, according to Defense Express.

Moreover, experts argue that a proposed force of 30,000 peacekeepers would be inadequate given Ukraine’s vast territory and the length of its front line. The report also highlights Europe’s limited defense production capacity, which may struggle to compensate for the weapon supplies the U.S. has been providing. While Washington has delivered around $60 billion in military aid since the war began, European contributions have totaled roughly €40 billion, a gap smaller than many assume.

Even if U.S. aid continues at current levels, the report suggests that Europe would still need to raise its military assistance by an additional €20 billion to sustain Ukraine’s defenses. Drawing historical parallels, the authors recall NATO’s intervention in the Balkans, where larger peacekeeping forces were required, reinforcing concerns that the proposed 30,000-strong contingent for Ukraine would be insufficient.