January 17–26 live war map: collapse in Myrnohrad, new offensive on Dobropillia
Now, as frost grips the fields, the Russian army is concentrating its strikes on Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, as well as Huliaipole, Kostiantynivka, and Vovchansk. Despite loud statements from Russian generals, they have failed to capture a single town after Siversk
The failure at Kupiansk and Putin's obvious lies, even in Trump's eyes, have undermined confidence in the ability of Russia's exhausted forces to conquer the Donetsk region by force this year or even next.
In January, Russian advances were minimal, while losses remained at a consistently high level. Consequently, according to preliminary estimates, in January the Russians paid perhaps the highest price of the entire war for each kilometer of Ukrainian land.
Pokrovsk withstands the blow, Russians strike at the flanks
Three and a half combined arms armies, which amounts to 150,000 to 170,000 personnel, have been storming Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad for over a year.
This is where a third of all battles on the front are taking place. But we see no breakthroughs—on the contrary, Ukraine's echeloned and well-technologically equipped defense has completely stabilized the line of contact.
This is where solutions are born that are then scaled across the entire front.
Throughout January, the Coordination Center for Unmanned Systems operated in the Pokrovsk direction, which together with the 7th Airborne Assault Corps implemented mechanisms that reduce the time from detecting the enemy to destroying them.
One surprise was the return of Australian Abrams tanks to the urban battlefield.
Tanks that had already been publicly written off due to their short lifespan in the modern realities of war have received new anti-drone protection and led several local counterattacks on the streets of Pokrovsk.
And this despite the fact that back in October, Russian Chief of General Staff Gerasimov reported that Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad were allegedly surrounded and under control of Russian forces.
If you look at the battle map, you'll see that Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold the northern part of the city, although the area of this control has shrunk by several blocks.
Meanwhile, Russian forces continue trying to cut off logistics and bypass the flanks.
One part of Russian troops is breaking through from the south along the road to the village of Hryshyne, which has been the main transit hub and base for drone operators for several months.
Russians are accumulating infantry around the village, and isolated cases of their destruction in Hryshyne itself have been recorded.
Another part of Russian forces wants to bypass the northern neighborhoods and industrial zone of Pokrovsk and cut off Olimpiiska Street, through which Hryshyne connects with the defenders of Myrnohrad.
Together, these two advances could potentially close the ring around the industrial zone of Pokrovsk under Ukrainian control.
Understanding this danger, Ukrainian Armed Forces have maximally concentrated their efforts here, and Ukrainian assault troops are taking countermeasures.
Encirclement breakthrough needed for Myrnohrad defenders
Unlike Pokrovsk, the situation in Myrnohrad is more difficult. Logistics to the city have long been cut off and are carried out almost exclusively by drones, including ground drones.
There are many Russians on almost all streets of the city, whom defenders can unexpectedly encounter.
Leaving Myrnohrad or conducting an evacuation is also almost impossible. And this is a matter of highest priority for the coming weeks, as there are fewer and fewer defenders and at some point they will not be able to provide organized resistance.
Ukrainian Armed Forces conducted most previous withdrawal operations successfully, so there's hope that the defenders of Myrnohrad will also be able to break through to their own lines. Especially since Russia doesn't yet control either Rivne or Svitle, so there are optimal chances for a breakthrough.
Understanding this, Russians want to close all exits from Myrnohrad and are constantly storming Chervonyi Lyman and Rodynske.
A fierce battle for the latter has been ongoing since July. Russian forces have infiltrated the town several times, but Ukrainian Defense Forces pushed them out.
Now it has almost completely become a gray zone. Although Russians have increased their area of control on the eastern approaches to Rodynske, they haven't captured a single street in the town yet.
They are currently accumulating resources for another mass penetration into the town. In addition, they are trying to bypass it from the north. In particular, Russian movements have been recorded in the area between Sukhetske and Rodynske.
Holding or capturing this town is crucial not only for complete control over the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad agglomeration, but also for continuing the offensive in the Dobropillia direction, where it has become very hot again.
New large-scale offensive on Dobropillia has begun
Russian small assault groups have again begun a massive offensive toward Dobropillia. They entered the villages of Nove Shakhove, Ivanivka, and Dorozhnie. Street fighting has resumed here.
Another direction of attacks is from Shakhove north to Sofiivka, which Russian forces are penetrating from both the south and east.
They managed to reach the center of the village, but Ukrainian troops drove out Russian forces and moved the fighting to the outskirts.
Sofiivka is one of the important links in Ukraine's defensive lines that block Russian advancement in the direction between Dobropillia and Kostiantynivka, toward Druzhkivka.
Currently, after Pokrovsk, this is a priority direction for Russian forces. They cannot surround Kostiantynivka.
Therefore, to capture it they will use the same tactics as in Pokrovsk—mass infiltration into the city. But before that, they need to limit logistics.
Russians want to squeeze the city in pincers from the east and west as much as possible.
The eastern pincers are already formed, and the western ones are in the preparatory stage. Here the Russian army is attacking northwest from Rusynyi Yar, but has very minimal advancement. The villages of Berestok and Illinivka will become another hot spot. Here Russian forces have already expanded the gray zone, and individual assault troops reach the outskirts of these villages, where they die. But in this way they pave a bloody route for subsequent groups.
There are certain weaknesses in Ukraine's defense on both flanks of Kostiantynivka, and the fire pocket over the city is narrowing.
Russians are preparing for an assault but cannot fully begin it while the defense of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad continues.
Threat of terror in Zaporizhzhia
On the southern front, a difficult battle continues for the southern outskirts of Zaporizhzhia. No, Russian forces cannot physically reach here, but they want to get within 15 km to be able to carry out constant terror with drones.
They aim to make the city deserted so that the front weakens through the weakening of rear areas. To do this, they need to capture the small town of Stepnohirsk. In recent days, Russians have made advances both in the central part of the town and on its eastern flank.
However, the defense here is still holding and not collapsing. Due to the low intensity of fighting, Ukrainian drones have time to destroy Russians who have penetrated the town.
Significant Russian activation occurred on the left flank, where failed attacks in the direction of Lukianivske and Pavlivka continued.
Russians want to eventually develop a flanking breakthrough toward Orikhiv. But Ukrainian Armed Forces are not allowing them to establish themselves here.
Meanwhile, on the right flank, Prymorske has been in the gray zone for over a month. Drone operator battles are being conducted along almost its entire 10-kilometer length. Russian forces are constantly trying to advance north and establish themselves on the banks of the Konka River.
Russian forces even attempted a breakthrough across the river to the village of Hryhorivka, but they were destroyed. After this, Ukrainian Armed Forces blew up the bridge across the river. This essentially limits Ukraine's ability to maintain a ground presence in this section of the front and will make it easier for Russians to establish themselves on the left bank of the Konka.
Nevertheless, in recent days Ukrainian Defense Forces conducted a local counteroffensive and pushed Russian forces back from the coast. However, Ukraine then withdrew from Prymorske, which is defended exclusively by drones, preventing Russian forces from accumulating enough resources to advance forward.
A new unexpected battlefield on the approaches to Zaporizhzhia could be the bottom of the dried-up Kakhovka Reservoir, where the Dnipro riverbed has significantly narrowed. And on the former bottom, a small forest has now grown, which in months will become a full "greenery."
This will give Russian forces the opportunity to approach Malokaterynivka unnoticed. Already now, special forces from both sides are conducting local battles on the former reservoir bottom.
However, as long as Ukraine controls Stepnohirsk and its surroundings, Russians cannot approach the Konka and terrorize Zaporizhzhia. However, this will likely be a near-term prospect.
The maps are created based on information obtained from the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ General Staff, as well as from other open and verified sources. At the same time, the maps are not maximally accurate and only conditionally reflect trends in the combat zone.
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