Russia lacks capability to capture key Ukrainian centers. Serhiy Zgurets' column

Russia cannot use its superiority on the battlefield to change the battle course

We are now trying to assess the realism of our European partners' plans to send their troops to the territory of Ukraine in the future. We are assessing the statements of US President Donald Trump, which often coincide with the rhetoric of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. In any case, we understand that all these negotiations do not affect the course of hostilities.

Today, of course, Russia has a numerical advantage in many areas. In particular, when we talk about manpower, it is 1:2 and 1:6 depending on the direction. However, Russia cannot use this advantage to fundamentally change the state of the fighting, to make a breakthrough and get to some important centers of Ukraine. We can say that the Russian occupation army does not have such potential and capabilities now and, I think, will not have them in the medium term.

As for the fighting that lasted for a week, today the number of hostilities reflects the average dynamics of 120 clashes per day. These are not peak figures. However, the enemy's losses remain peaky. Yesterday, it was reported that 1,280 Russian soldiers were killed, as well as a certain number of tanks and armored vehicles. More than 50 different types of artillery systems were also destroyed during the day.

Situation in Pokrovsk direction

Two areas remain the most active today - Pokrovsk and Kursk. Active hostilities also continue in the Kurakhove direction. Speaking of Pokrovsk, Ukrainian Defense Forces conducted counterattacks in several areas over the past week. Earlier it was reported about Pishchane, where the Russians were driven out. Ukrainian Armed Forces also counterattacked Dachenske and Lysivka. There, Ukrainian forces managed to push them away from the main direction of advance towards Pokrovsk.

We also know that in the east of this area, the fighters of the 12th Brigade of the Azov National Guard carried out a series of counterattacks that allowed them to push the Russian troops back east of Malynivka. In fact, the situation in the Pokrovsk direction is significantly improved compared to the periods when the invaders were advancing towards the city at a significant pace. Although just a few days ago, when we talked about the Ukrainian Armed Forces' counterattacks near Pishchane, the enemy is also conducting counterattacks in this locality. So in any case, this area remains quite difficult, but more positive than it has been for some time.

Russian forces aim to fire-control the Sudzha-Sumy highway to disrupt Ukrainian logistics in Kursk region

In other areas, the Russian forces are also trying to find ways to put pressure on Ukrainian positions. It is important to mention the fighting in the Kursk region. This area is a priority for the invaders in terms of political goals. It is known that more than 48,000 Russian personnel were destroyed in this area. Of these, 8,000 were killed. In the Kursk region, the Russian troops managed to break through and take control of Sverdlikovo. If we talk about the defense system of this bridgehead, there are three important points. Mala Loknya in the north, Sverdlikovo in the west, and Cherkaski Konopelki in the south. In fact, these three areas affect the sustainability of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' defense on this entire bridgehead. The fact that the Russuian forces have made their way to Sverdlikove means they are getting closer to the Sudzha-Sumy logistics route, which is the main road for supplying the Ukrainian troops. Now the enemy controls Sverdlikove and uses drones and artillery to influence Ukrainian logistics. The counterattacks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are almost mirrored. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are using drones, artillery and even aircraft to strike at the Russians in this area. Such actions are very important to disrupt the Russian potential in this area.

Ukrainian Armed Forces hold back a large group of Russian soldiers in Kurakhove direction

Another difficult situation is in the Kurakhove direction. It is known that there is a pocket there that is more than 10 km long, and the narrowest section is 2 km long. The Russian troops managed to capture Dachenske and are now trying to launch counterattacks on Ulakly and Kostiantynopil. In fact, they are partially in control of these settlements. Despite the Russian approach to these settlements, they do not have full control over Ulakly and Kostiantynopil. Similarly, they are now trying to influence this foothold, where units of at least three Ukrainian Armed Forces brigades from Andriivka are holding the line, above the Vovcha River and the road from Dachne to Zaporizhzhia. The situation in Andriivka is indicative of the fact that the Russians are not attacking this road and are trying to move westward.

In any case, the question arises as to how Ukrainian troops will act. Now we are saying that Ukrainian units are fighting to make retreating maneuvers from Dachne and beyond. It should be understood that a large group of Russian troops is still holding out in the fighting near Kurakhove, where they managed to capture the settlement. After the capture of Kurakhove, this grouping was supposed to put pressure on the Toretsk direction. This is still not happening. Holding this bridgehead in extremely difficult conditions continues to bind a large group of Russian troops.

Due to the constant unmanned reconnaissance of the Armed Forces and weather conditions, the Russians are unable to accumulate significant forces and means for offensive actions

Oleksiy Rozumnyi, an officer in the planning department of the Khartiia Brigade, said that many components play a role in planning combat operations. In particular, intelligence and logistics units. According to the officer, the planning department is focused on combining information coming from other parts of the headquarters and building the most appropriate course of action.

Oleksiy Rozumnyi said that there were no active changes on the battlefield in the area of responsibility of the Khartiia brigade over the past week. The Russian troops continue to try to accumulate their forces and resources. They have done this before. However, according to Rozumnyi, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are using all possible means to prevent him from doing so. Rozumnyi noted that weather conditions also prevent the Russian forces from amassing. In fact, the enemy is now trying to move on foot more than 5 kilometers from the contact line and is constantly monitored by reconnaissance drones, as well as by UAVs and artillery fire. Because of this, the Russian occupation army cannot move to more active hostilities against the Ukrainian Defense Forces.

UAVs will be the dominant means of destruction on the battlefield for a long time to come

Oleksiy Rozumnyi, an officer in the planning department of the Khartiia brigade, said that remote mining is a fairly common way to stop the Russian advance. This method is used by different brigades and units in different parts of the frontline. The officer emphasized that the Khartiia brigade is implementing and exchanging experience with other units in such planning. He noted that the tactics of using remote mining should not be resorted to, so that such information does not become available to the enemy.

Oleksiy Rozumnyi, an officer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, also said that ground robotic systems have not yet reached their full potential. The military is making a lot of efforts to speed up this process. After all, UAVs also have their limitations, and it is quite difficult to do logistics tasks, evacuation, etc. with drones alone. That is why this area is being actively developed in the Ukrainian Defense Forces. However, as Rozumnyi noted, when it comes to defeating, UAVs will be the dominant means for a very long time, and ground-based unmanned systems will not soon catch up.