Victory, not peace: Why truce with Russia will make things worse for Ukraine and Europe

Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military and political observer with the Information Resistance group, discussed how those advocating for this solution fail to consider the long-term risks, which could lead to a far worse global situation.

According to the observer, a ceasefire would allow Russia to regroup and build its military potential, preparing for a more dangerous escalation, potentially even invading NATO countries. Today, this threat has worsened, as Russia now has North Korea as a reliable ally.

In 2022, Russia launched its full-scale invasion with 180,000 troops and sufficient equipment, including over 2,400 tanks. Despite early setbacks, Russia is now able to quickly repair and restore its military equipment. However, its stocks are running low, and a truce could allow Russia to replenish its arsenal.

Russia’s stockpiles and recovery potential

Russia has between 3,000 and 3,500 tanks in storage, with 2,000 recoverable for service. The military can restore up to 350 vehicles per month, allowing Russia to reintroduce up to 5,500 tanks in a year. 

Armored vehicles, too, can be restored at a rate of 400-500 per month, potentially boosting the fleet to 10,000. Additionally, Russia can stockpile up to 2.5 million artillery rounds annually.

Missile production

Russia's missile stockpile will grow over the year, with the potential to accumulate:

• 800 to 1,000 Kh-101/555 missiles
• 300 to 400 Kalibr missiles
• 250 to 350 Iskander missiles
• 50 to 70 Kinzhals
• 15 to 20 Zircons

North Korea’s role

North Korea is increasingly assisting Russia with arms and munitions. The author argues that, over the next year, Russia could receive 5-8 million additional munitions and up to 500 armored personnel carriers, boosting Russia’s tank fleet to 6,000. 

The DPRK could also supply artillery, such as mortars, and potentially send soldiers to fight alongside Russian forces. If Russia recruits 12,000 personnel every 3 months, by the end of the year, it could form a 50,000-strong army of North Korean troops.

Domestic mobilization and Europe threats

Without ongoing fighting, Russia could accumulate over 400,000 personnel through its own mobilization. In total, Russia's army could exceed 1 million troops within a year. With this enhanced capacity, Russia could significantly increase its mechanized forces and human resources, threatening not just Ukraine, but potentially other European nations.

In a year, Russia could amass enough resources to launch an offensive, for example, through the Suwalki Corridor, Kovalenko suggests. With 500 tanks, 1,500 armored personnel carriers, 1,000 artillery systems, and up to 100,000 troops, Russia could quickly sever Poland’s left bank and secure the Baltic states. NATO would be unable to react in time, let alone organize a defense.

The author believes that the West fails to understand that any truce or peace settlement would only delay the onset of World War III in Europe, rather than freeze the threats facing Ukraine. By giving Russia time to recover and strengthen, the West would only enable a far more dangerous future conflict.

While Russia’s current state may seem weak, it has the potential to rebuild its forces quantitatively, bolstered by its alliance with North Korea. A truce would give Russia the breathing room to recover, making it far more dangerous in the future. Ukraine must push for victory now, while the enemy is still exhausted, rather than allowing it the time to grow stronger.