Trump traps himself: Why peace won’t happen in January or in six months

The first thing clear from Trump’s recent comments is that he now realizes the magnitude of the Russia-Ukraine war. He understands that this issue cannot be resolved in a day, a month, or with a simple phone call to Putin. Furthermore, as soon as the inauguration ball is over, every CNN and The New York Times will sarcastically ask, “So, where’s the quick resolution to Ukraine’s problems?”

From what’s emerging in the Western press, Trump’s team currently has no new ideas beyond what’s being called the “Kellogg Plan.” This is the plan suggesting Ukraine make concessions regarding NATO and freeze the front line with a “demilitarized zone.” However, no one has any clear recipes for how to implement this, and some European nations have already expressed little desire to act as peacekeepers. Only the French have firmly said “yes” — thanks to them for their genuinely sincere intentions.

It’s no surprise, then, that Trump’s special representative for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, postponed his visit to Kyiv, as he essentially has nothing new to offer. Additionally, his visit in an unofficial capacity could easily be overshadowed by the support packages and initiatives provided by Joe Biden’s administration in its final weeks.

Trump, as a master of populism and PR, continues to recycle old themes, claiming that Russia invaded Ukraine because of his indecisive predecessor. He also issued a blatantly false message that Putin attacked Ukraine because it… wanted to join NATO. Trump’s statement that he “understands Russia’s feelings” — suggesting that Russia wanted to secure itself — indicates the active influence of Russian lobbyists in Washington, spreading their narratives.

Ironically, Ukrainians never seriously considered NATO membership or genuine security guarantees.

Ukrainian sociologist Volodymyr Paniotto, the director of the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), highlights the sad trends in Ukraine. They reveal how careless and toothless the country has been when it comes to its own security.

Trump’s statements about NATO and Ukraine suggest one thing: as long as Putin is alive, Ukraine’s NATO membership under Trump seems unlikely.

NATO membership will likely become a concession Ukraine will have to make in any future negotiations — whether it’s the Kellogg Plan or any other.

The key question is: for how long will Ukraine have to abandon NATO aspirations, even temporarily? Ten years? Twenty years? What guarantees could Ukraine secure during Trump’s presidency? Will these include consistent military support or continued sanctions against Russia? How can Ukraine avoid restrictions on its right to reclaim occupied territories?

Finally, Ukraine must consider how not to permanently close the door to NATO. Lessons from Sweden and Finland are essential — these nations remained formally neutral for years but had robust defense industries and strong military defenses. In 2022, NATO quickly welcomed them as new members.

Many Ukrainian media outlets amplified the idea of ending the war in six months, giving hope to Ukrainians for coffee in Crimea by Easter.

In reality, Trump was referring only to a potential conversation with Putin in the next six months.

In diplomatic terms, this means Trump is not talking about ending the war but about attempting to negotiate a temporary ceasefire. Trump’s promise of “peace through strength” cannot be achieved simply by sitting down with Putin or within six months.

Trump’s approach to the press at Mar-a-Lago resembled an attempt to settle scores with Joe Biden over the 2020 election loss. According to Trump, the timid Biden failed to negotiate with Putin, prompting an insulted Russia to attack.

A few weeks ago, Putin stated that delaying Kyiv’s NATO membership by 10-15 years was proposed to him by Biden in 2021. Biden also canceled sanctions on Nord Stream 2 that Trump had imposed.

Trump remembered the second part of this and became angry at Biden for lifting sanctions. However, for some reason, Ukraine was made the scapegoat.

What lessons should Ukraine learn from these statements? There will be no wizards or simple solutions. Even the so-called magicians will break their wands against harsh realities.

Breaking free from Russia’s influence is a task only Ukrainians can accomplish. It’s time to evaluate the effectiveness of the government. Perhaps it’s time to focus on defense quietly but effectively. Long-range missiles must exist not on paper but in reality, making Russia fear Ukraine in both dreams and waking moments.

As long as the Ministry of Defense is plagued by corruption scandals and cases like the Anna Kyivska Brigade draw international attention, few will take Ukraine’s requests for help seriously. Meanwhile, various podcasters, like Lex Fridman, will continue to push Ukraine toward dialogue with Russia.

Exclusively for Espreso

About the author: Maryna Danylyuk-Yarmolaeva, journalist

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.