February military analysis: Russia scales back missile strikes, sets record for drone attacks

Ukrainian military and political observer Oleksandr Kovalenko provides the monthly analysis, published on Obozrevatel. 

Missile strikes

Russia fired 99 missiles last month, with Ukrainian air defense intercepting at least 14. The majority were Iskander-M/K, Kh-101/555, and Kalibr missiles. A single large-scale missile attack took place on February 1.

Missile attacks focused on Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, and Poltava regions. The decline in strikes, recorded for the second consecutive month, is likely due to production challenges and Ukrainian efforts to disrupt Russian logistics.

Record drone attacks

Russia launched 3,907 drones in February, including Shahed-136 and decoy UAVs, with 103 hitting targets — about 3% success rate. Russia's goal seems clear — maximum depletion of Ukraine's air defense, the report states.

FPV drone use also surged to a new high of 17,000 in February, with a daily record of 1,150 on one day. The rise suggests steady supply chains from China despite reported restrictions.

Lancet UAVs return

After months of limited use, Russian forces reintroduced Lancet drones, deploying over 200 in February. Other strike drones, such as Molniya-2 and Privet-82, were also actively used.

According to Kovalenko, Russia shifted focus from missile strikes to drones to overwhelm Ukraine’s air defenses. As missile production faces setbacks, Moscow appears to prioritize cheaper, high-volume drone warfare, both at the frontlines and deep into Ukrainian territory, he concludes.