Russia-Ukraine war could go further

Taiwan has accused China of damaging a communication cable, and this is actually very significant news.

A Chinese cargo ship damaged a telecommunications cable near a port off Taiwan’s northern coast on January 3rd. The cable is part of the Trans-Pacific Express cable system, which connects Taiwan with the United States.

The ship Shunxing39 dragged its anchor across the location where the cable was severed. Taiwan views this as a sign of preparations for annexation.

No jokes — both American and European security leaders, publicly and privately, are assessing the likelihood of an attempt to annex Taiwan by 2027.

At the same time, Russia is already attacking critical infrastructure in NATO countries.

On December 25th, the Russian tanker Eagle S, which transports oil for Russia, damaged the Estlink 2 energy cable in the Gulf of Finland in the Baltic Sea. In addition to the electrical cable, four communication cables were also damaged.

The Finnish police have already confiscated the tanker. It was equipped with espionage devices — transmission and reception equipment. Earlier, the same tanker, Eagle S, also dropped sensor devices in the English Channel, and the gathered information was transmitted to Russia for analysis.

Are there still any doubts that these communication breaches are not happening by accident?

In my opinion, this is the answer to those skeptics who believe that Russia is incapable of any aggression against the NATO bloc. They argue that Russia is bogged down in Ukraine, has lost its influence in Syria, so how could it pose a threat to NATO?

Here’s the answer for you. Asymmetric. The Russians are experts in hybrid warfare tactics.

Funding of both right-wing and left-wing radical parties across Europe is a trump card for Russia. It doesn’t matter which parties. There is no ideology behind it. The main thing is that these political movements are as populist, as grassroot, and as polarizing for society as possible.

Russia’s partner, China, has already demonstrated its ability to influence elections in Europe through the social media platform TikTok and turn them upside down. Romania is an example. Fortunately, their Constitutional Court annulled the election results and restricted the use of TikTok.

What I’m getting at is that underestimating the hybrid influence of the Axis of Evil and its capabilities is very unwise.

It’s also clear who is in charge of these processes in Russia - FSB officer Nikolai Patrushev. On November 11th last year, he stated in an interview with Kommersant that "British and American infrastructure targets could be under threat, including underwater fiber-optic cables that provide global communication." Does that sound familiar?

At the same time, more and more disturbing reports about Russian activity in Estonia have been appearing in the media lately. 

The incident involving the damage to underwater infrastructure in the Gulf of Finland is nothing less than a test of capabilities for future sabotage. This is the first scenario of influence — technological.

The second direction is working with the Russian-speaking community. An interesting example is the city of Sillamäe, where over 80% of the population speaks Russian. Pro-Russian narratives are actively promoted there through social media and messaging apps, bypassing traditional media, which are under the control of the Estonian authorities. Russia uses the same methods in other regions where it tries to increase its influence.

Therefore, although there is no direct military threat at the moment, the situation requires constant monitoring and preventive measures by the Estonian government and the international community.

But rest assured — once there is a "window of opportunity," the Axis of Evil will not waste time.

Source

About the author. Vasyl Pekhno, journalist, radio host, analyst.

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.