Will January 9 Ramstein be last, and what's on agenda? Espreso explains

Content

1. What is a Ramstein format meeting?

2. What is the main topic of the January 9 meeting?

3. With Trump's return, Ramstein may likely be replaced by NSATU.

Espreso will explain the Ramstein format, what will be discussed on January 9, and why this meeting might be the last.

What is a Ramstein format meeting?

The Ramstein format emerged in response to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. To coordinate assistance to Kyiv, a single platform was needed that would unite the military efforts of allied countries. The initiator of this group was U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. 

The platform was named after the U.S. air base in Germany, where the first meeting took place on April 26, 2022, and immediately proved to be an effective mechanism for consolidating efforts to help Ukraine. Since then, these meetings have been held regularly, usually once a month, and have become an important part of international support for Ukraine. Defense ministers and representatives of more than 50 countries have regularly discussed military, technical and logistical support for Ukraine aimed at strengthening its defense capabilities. 

Thanks to the Ramstein meetings, Ukraine received a wide range of weapons that significantly strengthened its defense capabilities. The key deliveries include NASAMS, IRIS-T, Patriot air defense systems; Leopard 2, Challenger 2, and Abrams tanks; HIMARS, M777 artillery systems; 155 mm howitzers; modern combat drones and electronic warfare systems, as well as F-16 fighter jets. 

These meetings allowed Ukraine not only to steadily replenish its arsenal in the war with the Russian aggressor, but also to train thousands of soldiers abroad. Partner countries have introduced numerous programs to train Ukrainian military in the EU and the United States. These included training on the latest weapons and tactical training.

In addition, the Ramstein format helped to establish logistics chains for the supply of ammunition, spare parts, and repair of military equipment. Participants also discussed the establishment of repair bases in Ukraine's neighboring countries. 

In general, over these almost three years, the Contact Group on Ukraine's Defense has not only contributed to strengthening Ukraine's defense capabilities, but has also played an important role in deterring Russian aggression at the global level. After all, it unites countries around a common goal - the protection of international law and the achievement of stable peace in Ukraine. 

What is the main topic of the January 9 meeting?

The meeting, which will take place on January 9, has been postponed for several months. It was supposed to take place on October 12 last year with the participation of President Joe Biden and other state leaders. However, it had to be postponed because American officials were busy dealing with Hurricane Milton, the most powerful hurricane in a century, which hit the U.S. East Coast. In addition, preparations for the presidential election were underway.

At that time, the main topic was supposed to be the presentation of the details of Volodymyr Zelenskyy's Victory Plan, but this did not happen. Therefore, the President of Ukraine toured European capitals to discuss his ideas for ending the war with the continent's leaders. 

Although it feels like only three months have passed since then, much has changed. Most notably, Republican Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. elections has shifted the political landscape. Trump has expressed a desire to bring Ukraine and Russia to the negotiating table as quickly as possible, signaling a strategy that differs significantly from the Biden administration's approach. The upcoming meeting on January 9 may mark the last in this format.

According to President Zelenskyy, on January 9, they will discuss strengthening Ukraine's air defense system. 

“There are dozens of partner countries, and among them there are those who can increase our capability not only to defend against missiles, but also to defend against guided bombs, against Russian aviation. We will talk to them about this, we will convince them. Life needs to be protected here and now in Ukraine, and air defense systems must work for this,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.  

The U.S. Department of Defense said that the purpose of Lloyd Austin's participation in the upcoming Ramstein meeting is to “reaffirm our enduring commitment to Ukraine, together with defense ministers and military leaders from around the globe.”

"Secretary Austin will focus on delivering practical and coordinated support that reinforces Ukraine's ability to defend itself today and deter aggression in the future," the Pentagon spokeswoman said.

The Associated Press wrote that on Ramstein Day, January 9, the Joe Biden administration intends to announce its latest military aid package to Ukraine. The exact cost of the new aid package is not yet known, but it is known that it will be “significant,” probably more than a billion dollars.

Earlier, White House counselor John Kirby said that this would be the last meeting of the Ramstein Group during Joe Biden's term. That is, this meeting will be the final one for the Biden administration, so there will be a lot of talk about the achievements and importance of maintaining the contact group, but probably in a different format. Therefore, new mechanisms of work will also be discussed. 

With Trump's return, Ramstein may likely be replaced by NSATU

The idea that NATO could take over the coordination of Ramstein began to be discussed as early as last spring. With the election of Donald Trump as president of the United States, real concerns arose about a possible reduction in American support for Ukraine.

According to Reuters, in response, NATO has already partially taken over the coordination of military assistance to Ukraine, which was previously carried out by the United States. This step is aimed at ensuring the stability of support for Ukraine and protecting the assistance mechanism from possible political changes in the United States. 

To fulfill NATO's new coordination role, the NATO Security Assistance and Training Ukraine (NSATU) mission was established and is headquartered at the U.S. Clay Barracks in Wiesbaden, Germany. Currently, the total number of NSATU personnel is about 700, including military personnel stationed at NATO's SHAPE headquarters in Belgium and at logistics centers in Poland and Romania. 

The Supreme Allied Commander Europe, Christopher Cavoli, stated that the work of NSATU is aimed at positioning Ukraine and NATO as powers to ensure the security and prosperity of people both in Europe and North America.

And Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, answering the question of the transfer of coordination in the Ramstein format to NATO, noted that “these are inseparable processes related to Ukraine's further progress towards NATO membership and the realization of our Euro-Atlantic aspirations.”

Generally speaking, the transfer of military aid coordination from the United States to NATO is intended to ensure continuity of support for Ukraine despite political changes in Washington. However, given the dominant role of the United States in the Alliance and its contribution to arms supplies, the Trump administration's decisions could have a significant impact on the amount of future assistance. Therefore, although NATO is taking over all coordination, maintaining the level of support for Ukraine will largely depend on the position of the new U.S. administration.

However, Politico notes that it is still unclear whether Trump, who has repeatedly stated that he will quickly end the war after taking office, will continue U.S. participation in the Ramstein format or immediately wind it down.

It is worth remembering that Donald Trump pursues an unpredictable policy. Therefore, his loud statements about the possible termination of aid to Ukraine and even the U.S. withdrawal from NATO are actually a political tool to achieve certain goals. Accordingly, it is possible that Trump may even return to the Ramstein format. It will all depend on the negotiations he wants to initiate between Kyiv and Moscow. After all, if the Russians are not ready to compromise, Trump will be interested in strengthening Ukraine as much as possible.