January 1-8 live war map. Kurakhove near collapse, crisis in Toretsk, Ukraine deploys drone ‘carriers’

Ukraine’s counteroffensive in Kursk region

At the end of December, the situation on the Kursk front became critical for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Russian forces advanced from all directions, focusing particularly on cutting the front line near Malaya Loknya and reaching the southeastern outskirts of Sudzha. Under these conditions, the options were either to further shorten the front line and gradually retreat south into Ukraine or launch counterattacks to stabilize the situation temporarily.

Before the offensive, the Ukrainian Armed Forces struck command posts and bases of Russian troops in Lgov, Rylsk, Ivanovskoye, and during the offensive continued hitting targets in Kursk and Belaya. Additionally, just before the offensive, Ukrainian forces employed new technology, using electronic warfare to neutralize all Russian drones within a 10 km radius, except those using fiber-optic connections. Details and results of the offensive remain under discussion as it continues. However, participants report positive dynamics and forward progress. Remarkably, the Ukrainian Armed Forces has used only minimal reserves, leaving room to extend maneuver warfare to other, currently quieter, sections of the front.

It can now be confirmed that Ukrainian paratroopers launched attacks in at least three directions. One key strike targeted Bolshoye Soldatskoye on the Sudzha-Kursk highway, with fighting reported near Berdin and Rozgrebli villages, where the Ukrainian Armed Forces advanced 4-5 km. Another offensive was directed between Ruskaya Konopelka and Cherkaskaya Konopelka, aiming to encircle and destroy part of Russian forces. A third attack targeted Lyubimovka.

Russian forces continued their advance on Sudzha, attacking Makhnovka, just 3 km from the city. They also attempted to storm Viktorovka near Malaya Loknya, but Ukrainian forces repelled the assault. Additionally, Russian troops are trying to attack Sverdlikovoye to cut off part of Ukraine’s contingent from the Ukrainian border and its logistics. According to Ukraine’s General Staff, during the five months of the Kursk operation, the Ukrainian forces eliminated over 38,000 Russian and North Korean troops. Approximately 55,000 remain engaged in the fighting. This has enabled Ukraine to keep nearly a 100,000-strong Russian grouping far from the border and protect the Sumy region from devastation.

Breakthrough threat in Lyman sector

Since mid-October, Russian forces began an active assault on the village of Terny, aiming to cross the Zherebets River and establish a bridgehead on its right bank. Despite this, Ukrainian troops from the 60th Brigade managed to hold the Russians back, preventing the occupation of Terny and further advancement southward to Yampolivka. However, Russian troops managed to cross the river further north, first establishing a bridgehead near Ivanivka, then fully capturing the village and even attempting to advance westward. Currently, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to drive Russian forces out of the right bank, but if they fail, the entire Lyman front will feel the negative consequences.

Further north, on the Borova front, Russian troops have finally occupied the village of Lozova, which had been in the gray zone for several weeks. They continue to push along a wide front toward the Oskil River, although in recent weeks the Ukrainian Defense Forces have managed to stabilize the situation and prevent any further Russian advances. Similarly, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are holding the defense in the village of Kopanky and are not allowing Russian forces to fully cut off the Borova-Svatove road.

Toretsk on brink of collapse

In the first days of January, Russian forces launched a large-scale offensive on Toretsk. They managed to fully capture the Central mine and its slag heaps, and also launched an attack on the last unoccupied north-western part of the city. Within a few days, half of the district fell into a gray zone, with only the outskirts and the southern part of the Zabalka district remaining under full Ukrainian control. Russia now controls more than 70% of the city, and heavy fighting is ongoing for the remaining 20%. Additionally, Russian troops advanced in Nelipivka, took control, and began their attack on Leonidivka. On the northern outskirts of Toretsk, Russian troops have approached the settlements of Dachne and Krymske. The full capture of Toretsk will open the way for Russian forces not only to Kostiantynivka and Chasiv Yar but also for a northern bypass of Pokrovsk and cutting off part of the important logistical routes. However, a complete occupation of the city is not expected soon; battles for its ruins are likely to continue for months.

Russian forces begin forming northern bypass of Pokrovsk

In July, Russian forces halted at Vozdvyzhenka, located 6 km from the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka highway. Afterward, they spent six months organizing a southern pincer maneuver to encircle the city. This pincer is now nearly complete. In late December and early January, Russian forces resumed intense attacks on Vozdvyzhenka, capturing the village and expanding the gray zone by 3 km toward the highway. Additionally, Russian forces began forming flanks, attacking Ukrainian positions in Baranivka from the north and in Yelyzavetivka from the south. Fierce battles are currently ongoing in both villages.

South of Pokrovsk, the invading Russian troops are attempting to align the front line and prepare advantageous positions for an assault on the city. Heavy fighting is ongoing in Lysivka, Dachenske, and Zelene, where the Ukrainian Armed Forces still hold their ground. The Russians have not managed to break through north of Shevchenko or capture Pishchane. However, Russian forces are making progress in bypassing Pishchane toward one of the main roads to Pokrovsk, coming within less than a kilometer of cutting off this artery near the village of Kotlyne. Russian forces are likely to try moving further north to completely sever Pokrovsk's logistics. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are mounting most of their counterattacks on this section of the front.

On the western flank of the Pokrovsk sector, Ukrainian forces have been unable to halt the gradual advance of Russian troops toward the Dnipropetrovsk region. After occupying Novoolenivka and Ukrainka, the main battles have centered around three key villages: Novovasylivka, Novoyelyzavetivka, and Solone. Currently, all three are nearly fully occupied, though Ukrainian forces continue rearguard actions on their outskirts. In various sections of the front, Russian troops are 8 to 11 km away from reaching the Dnipropetrovsk region. Entering the Dnipropetrovsk region would serve as a significant PR and political victory for Russia, making it a primary objective. However, it is unlikely they will push further into the region while Pokrovsk remains outside Russian control.

Ukrainian forces withdraw from Kurakhove amid new encirclement threat

Despite loud claims from Russian leadership, Russian forces are yet to fully occupied Kurakhove. Ukraine's General Staff assures that defensive forces still hold some positions in the city. However, a full withdrawal from Kurakhove is imminent, if it hasn’t already occurred. Current fighting is allowing Ukrainian troops to retreat to more advantageous positions. The Russian advance in Kurakhove became possible after they captured the village of Dalne and used it to break through to the city’s southwestern outskirts. On this section of the front, Russian troops quickly seized the territory between Kurakhove and Kostiantynopilske, but further progress westward remains stalled as long as Kurakhove continues to hold the line.

On the southern flank of the Kurakhove salient, after withdrawing from Uspenivka, Ukrainian forces continue to hold the front line along the Sukhi Yaly River. Russian forces are attacking in two directions: toward the village of Yantarne to access the road to Dachne and toward the Kurakhove-Zaporizhzhia highway. Here, they aim to cut off the route somewhere between the villages of Ulakly and Kostiantynopil. To achieve this, they have crossed the river at Zelenivka. If successful, the entire Kurakhove group will not only be completely cut off from logistics but also effectively encircled. Russian troops are now just 3 kilometers from the highway.

After the complete withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the Kurakhove pocket, Russian troops will significantly shorten the front line. Currently stretching about 50 km, it could be reduced to just 6 km if the front is cut at the line between Zelenivka and Shevchenko. This would free up substantial Russian reserves. Already, with most battles in Kurakhove concluded, the Russians have redeployed some forces to the Pokrovsk sector, reactivating plans to encircle the city from the north. However, the occupying Russian forces can fully focus on Pokrovsk only after resolving the "Kurakhove issue."

On the northern flank of the Kurakhove sector, following the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the pocket between Sontsivka and Stari Terny, Russian troops capitalized on their gains, capturing the villages of Shevchenko and Petropavlivka, establishing two offensive lines. They are attempting to form a third line near the village of Slovyanka, but Ukrainian forces are holding their positions there.

Velyka Novosilka stands strong under attack

Despite attacks from the east, south, and north, Russian forces have failed to advance in Velyka Novosilka for weeks. Instead, they are resorting to their usual tactics, attempting to flank the town. While the assault on Novy Komar has been held off by Ukrainian forces, Russian troops continue gradual progress westward toward the last uncut supply route. On the broad front from Vremivka to Novosilka, Russian troops are now within a kilometer of the road and may sever it any day. Although this won't completely halt logistics to the town, it will significantly disrupt them, placing the defenders of Velyka Novosilka at risk of encirclement.

Ukrainian forces deploy ‘aircraft carriers’ for strike drones

Ukraine’s innovations in war know no bounds, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to prove this time and again. This time, they created a "carrier" for drones. By mounting 8 drones, likely on platforms based on the sea drone Magura, they were able to sail deep into the Russian territory and destroy 5 air defense systems in the area between Skadovsk and Pryvillia in the Kherson region, 70-85 km from the front. Several Pantsir-S1, S-300, and Buk systems were unexpectedly hit by FPV drones from the sea. And no electronic warfare (EW) could stop them. Given the success of this experiment, the role of unmanned boats may significantly expand, and swarms of Ukrainian drones could appear in Russian rear areas even more frequently.

The maps were created using data from the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and other verified open sources. They are approximate and only represent general trends in the combat zone.