Key shifts in U.S. policy toward Ukraine under Trump: military, aid, info wars

In its latest statement, the analytical channel Resugram shared insights on what to expect from U.S. President Donald Trump's administration, especially regarding its approach to the ongoing war in Ukraine. 

The channel shared some predictions, particularly concerning the United States’ involvement in Ukraine:

1.  Active military operations will continue in 2025.

There are no indications that the active military engagements in Ukraine will cease next year. 

2. The Trump administration’s shift in approach to Ukraine by April 2025.

By around April 2025, Trump’s administration will likely intensify pressure on Ukraine to consider a "freeze" on the war. However, this pressure will be accompanied by a shift in rhetoric, especially if the U.S.'s attempt to break the ties between Moscow and China fails.

3. Sanctions will remain in place or be tightened.

Contrary to expectations, the U.S. will not ease sanctions on Russia. Instead, Trump’s administration will support the continued use of frozen Russian assets in Europe, aiming to weaken Moscow's financial footing.

4. Military aid to Ukraine will be delayed.

Ukraine will likely not receive any military assistance from the Trump administration until 3-4 months after his inauguration. Furthermore, the initial aid will not be a new program but rather the remaining funds from the Biden administration’s PDA allocation.

5. New aid program not expected before the third quarter of 2025.

A new military assistance program for Ukraine will only be approved in Q3 of 2025. This program will exclude grants and could take the form of a loan or a Lend-Lease program, marking a shift away from previous aid models.

For Ukraine to receive aid from the Trump administration, it must present a compelling argument that its interests are more attractive than Russia’s ongoing negotiations with Putin. Demonstrating that Ukraine’s situation is favorable for U.S. support is essential.

6. Information wars will play a significant role.

Ukraine will need to capitalize on highlighting Russia’s economic vulnerabilities and military weaknesses to attract the attention and support of Western governments, particularly the Trump administration. The Russian government, in turn, will attempt to divert attention from these issues through its information campaigns, such as focusing on military victories like "advances in the Dnipropetrovsk region" or "retaking areas near Pokrovsk."

An essential aspect of this phase will be the "information wars," as Russia and Ukraine battle for favorable narratives in the Western media.

7. Elon Musk’s exit from Trump’s administration.

Lastly, Resugram predicts that Elon Musk will depart from the Trump administration by the end of the year. This change could signal a shift in the political landscape and further shape the administration’s policies.

Resugram’s analysis offers an intriguing look at what to expect from the next U.S. administration under Trump, as well as the ongoing geopolitical struggles between Russia, Ukraine, and the West. It also underscores how the war in Ukraine could evolve in the coming years and how both sides will continue to battle not only on the frontlines but also in the realm of information and global diplomacy. 

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