Putin in his 70s cannot cope with where Russia is headed now - Mark Feygin 

I would like to start our analysis with an extremely unexpected development. On the one hand, Gerasimov seems to have been promoted above Surovikin. However, for the Russian General Staff Chief it is a de facto demotion and the direct responsibility for waging war against Ukraine.

This is certainly a hardware revenge from the institutional generals. They have been very humiliated for the last six months. After all, it was General Gerasimov who started the operation. In general, Shoigu and Gerasimov were responsible for the first period of the failed blitzkrieg, it was clear that all the dogs were hung on them. Most of them deservedly. Do you remember the quarrel about Lubyanka, that the wrong information was coming from there, the story of General Beseda from the 5th Directorate, who was during the Maidan in Kyiv? The ball of responsibility was thrown between Lubyanka, the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff. Then there was a pause, after which Dvornikov was appointed the head of the "special operation". It is the chaos of changes and we came to Surovikin. Surovikin is the same general of the army, he was treated kindly in his time, as well as Lapin, he was given all possible recognition by Putin, but he was lowered to the level of deputy, and the deputy does not decide anything. Everything is decided by the first leader General Gerasimov. After a long apparatus war, this means the victory of the standard generals, who embody full-fledged leadership, over all these upstarts who are figures who were raised from the bottom.

But they were not raised by some people, they were raised specifically on direct visas. Most likely, there was a meeting between Prigozhin and Putin, the latter offered something to Putin. Putin confirmed it, and then the headquarters was made: Prigozhin, Surovikin and Co.

Putin has such a nature, he "breeds" everyone: he promises something to everyone, gives everyone some carte blanche, and then a sudden hardware decision that changes the whole picture turns the board over. And so it happened. There were talks about almost personnel changes in the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff, that they would be removed, and then such a sharp change of course. Putin loves such Jesuitism of the apparatus, he is not very smart and knowledgeable, but he has a political flair and he often took steps that led him to a dead end. Apparently, this was one such situation, because there was a significant fragmentation of the power system, now it will be restored, and recreated. There were some players, free radicals who began to act independently. Prigozhin belongs to them.

But who is he anyway, this Prigozhin? It turns out that he is titled just a businessman. He is not even the formal head of Wagner PMC, not the founder, not the CEO. What is it - a joint stock company? Is it registered? Is there such a legal entity? Can you imagine, 37 thousand people are fighting, and who they are - no one knows. We understand that this is not a PMC, however, Prygozhyn's role is informal, and now everything is returning to the formal circle. That is, in anticipation of a major offensive, which they are really preparing, gathering forces and means, they decided to take the path when the operation will be carried out by the institutional leadership - the military leadership, the General Staff, first of all, respectively, the Ministry of Defense, etc. And the fate of, for example, Prigozhin is unenviable. I will remind you of the epithets with which the current commander of the "special operation" Gerasimov was awarded by his contractors, and he supported them when they accused him of the lack of shells.

They laid so much mud that it could have been used to build the second Kremlin wall.

Now all these comrades together with Prigozhin have a task like "to take Washington in three days". Now the life of these models is short, that is, very short.

Do you have a feeling that in this governmental game, they will simply start to drain Gerasimov? The Chief of the Russian General Staff is responsible for crimes, in particular, for an act of unprovoked military aggression against a neighboring state, and so on, the list can be counted on 15 volumes of the new Nuremberg. However, this is still a person who should coordinate the activities of all branches of the armed forces, who is responsible not only for a separate war against Ukraine but also for strategic defense, deployment of strategic deterrence forces, cooperation with the Commander of the Russian Navy, etc. We understand what the General Staff is. And then they took it and threw it again to Bakhmut.

There are three explanations for this. First: the bench is small and Surovikin has not distinguished himself, his only achievement is the so-called Surovikin line. And what is it - only now there are battles for Soledar, not Bakhmut, there were no other successes. If Kherson was left, it was a collective decision, the bridgehead of the Right Bank was unusable. And, in fact, there are no achievements. And whom to change, whom to appoint? They have already tried many things. The second reason: they expect to win, not to lose. We assume that they are doomed, and they are convinced that this big offensive will give a result, not 100%, but one that can be negotiated with, or similar. And thirdly: why don't we consider it from the point of view that  "the generals are taking revenge on Putin, not only on Prigozhin."

In order to set conditions for him: you know, my friend, the corporation has decided so, we still have to bring it to the end. To what end? We cannot guarantee you victory in this war, but what is the point in destroying the army? We can simply lose it in an attempt to capture Ukraine. As it is, mobilization is a huge strain of forces, which may or may not give results. And what is next?

And here it is not very clear how Putin will behave in this situation. He cannot take too many risks and he will not start shooting generals, because it is not known how it will end, because they are all connected quite closely: Gerasimov has been forming the General Staff team for almost 15 years. And Shoigu, who headed the Ministry of Defense, despite the fact that he is not a professional military man. Perhaps the moment has come when they have probably come up with a plan to restore hierarchy, discipline and order without the public disrespect of the leadership that has taken place, that is, to put everything in its place. And Putin, whether he wants to or not, must agree with this. He may not like it, but he has to take into account the wishes of the army. Even if it is an unsuccessful general offensive, from the north, for example, or on Kharkiv from Belgorod, the army will not allow itself to be manipulated or juggled in any direction. It may be that the army will live on, Putin is here today, gone tomorrow, but the army remains an institution. And therefore, perhaps, they have assumed both responsibility and their right.

That is, the junta is actually now transforming into a military fascist structure, now they are beginning to reformat in general, as Mussolini and Hitler probably dreamed.

Symbiosis with the Lubyanka-army fascist junta, apparently, will not work, too serious contradictions between Lubyanka (the state security services of the Russian Federation. There are former KGB headquarters and prison at Lubyanka Square, Moscow - ed.) and the army. The army is still stronger, it has the guns, not the FSB. In any confrontation, the army solves the issue of power, as it was in August 1991. Then the army did not support the de facto coup, it pretended to follow orders, but in reality, it did not. And what would have been in Ukraine if the army had supported Yanukovych? It did not happen. The army is the strongest institution, no matter what they say. There have always been disputes between the army and Lubyanka, the army did not like Lubyanka, and Lubyanka rather treated the army as an institution that it should manage and determine what is there and how. At one time, Putin even appointed General Ivanov, a KGB general, to the Ministry of Defense. This was in the noughties. And then it also caused great discontent. Ivanov was very much disliked - a "civilian jacket" (civilian in the military or security bodies - ed.) from the FSB apparatchiks (apparatus employees - ed.), who suddenly decided to lead the army. Therefore, it is actually difficult to imagine the KGB-army junta after the defeat in the war. But I can imagine the confrontation of all against all.

"Why the confrontation between Lubyanka and the army takes place now - because no one wants to take responsibility for the defeat."

It is your fault - no, it is your fault. It is you who are fighting badly - you gave us the wrong information, you said that we would be met with flowers. These are the things that have always mattered in Russian history: who is to blame? This is the central question, "what to do?" Perhaps the army decided to strain its forces, but when it does not work, we can make another mobilization, but what then? Let's put another hundred thousand, right? By the way, it may be that the army takes over some corporate functionality, which was somewhat lost. You see, the Supreme Commander-in-Chief is sitting there and decides whether to go there or here. No, it is necessary to take into account the opinion of the generals, because there is no other. No matter how they are treated, with the same Shoigu - a plywood marshal or a fool Gerasimov, as some Lubyanka or Kremlin publicists write about them in the Telegram, but they are the ones who give orders.

This structure - Kiriyenko, Surovikin and Kadyrov, showed how pompous they are, and they were taken and put under Gerasimov, even in this localized story, but still. I do not know Gerasimov, but you have heard rumors about him too. How will he react and how do you assess the prospects of a new phase of the war against Ukraine?

Gerasimov will certainly centralize the leadership, there will be no more fragmentation when Prigozhin did what he wanted under Surovikin. Of course, orders were given, but he took responsibility, he had the resources that were provided to him - money, weapons and ammunition. As he said then: I have helicopters and tanks. Do criminals have everything now? Can you imagine an army of convicts owning tanks and planes? It seems that someone did not like it, so the process of centralization will intensify. Secondly, they have to get rid of undesirable elements. How? It's very simple. When you are a commander, you say: that's it, go to Sloviansk. It's a suicide, an expeditionary campaign of some PMC of Wagner will end in the end. But why not give him such an order? Why not add ammunition and shells to make them self-destruct? Very good tactics, it is often used, not only in Russia, by the way. There is much more of it in Russia. We have seen that mobilized people tell how they are left in the woods without officers, communication, ammunition and food. It is quite realistic to leave 37 thousand PMC Wagner for such expenses.

And thirdly. The task may not be set as maximum, but "if possible". That is, they regain some part of the previously occupied territories as a result of some offensive and efforts and come up with political decisions, which, please, you will implement. We cannot force Ukraine to negotiate, but you can. We can create tension in the northern direction or in Central Ukraine, in Donbas, as they do, and you can use this resource, which was given to you with the strain of the army forces, to achieve political negotiations. There is a logic in this: you want to capture the whole of Ukraine with the available forces and means - it is impossible. I am sure that General Gerasimov if he comes to some analysis and proposals, says: we cannot capture Ukraine with the available resources.

But knowing the Soviet Stalinist history, in any confrontation between generals, who always wins - Lavrentiy Beria. While at least Stalin is alive. Or Putin. And after Putin's death, of course, Beria will be used up.

Are we at the stage when General Pavlov was shot in 1941, or at the stage when Stalin is dying? Depending on how you look at it, maybe we are both at the same time.

We have already mentioned the problems among the military, and there are disputes in the presidential administration and in the government. Look how they react painfully to the failure to fulfill the state defense order. Medvedev was sent to St. Petersburg, he says that up to criminal responsibility, which sounds naive, by the way.

However, why has Medvedev revived so much? He seems to have put on Zhirinovsky's pajamas and started to refresh his rhetoric.

Putin allowed him to portray such a Petrushka (marionette - ed.). For what purpose? For some of his "intelligence" purposes. To show by his example, what happens when people who do not correspond to their status and background begin to portray themselves as something more than they really are. He is only a deputy secretary of the National Security Council, but he thinks that his background of the former president - a fake president, a fake, cardboard - does not even have weight in the apparatus, he is despised. As Prigozhin said about the forecasts for 2023, which Medvedev posted on social networks - "erotic fantasies"?

In fact, something else is interesting here: there is a fuss. Putin is scratching Manturov, one of his ministers. Then Medvedev is running around with his state defense order. Then we hear that the situation with money is getting worse, and the Central Bank is already talking about a sad near future. They will overcome these problems, but in what way? They will simply continue to act despite the problems, as they do: they are increasing the military budget, they are going to raise the age of conscription to 30 years (from 27), etc. Despite the emerging and growing problems, they continue to do what they have been doing without changing the main strategic plans that could change the situation. In my opinion, the situation is rolling where it is rolling, and Putin, as it is - in 8th place, with the defeat now, even if not yet final, does not have the strength and means to cope with it all, at least alone.

Maybe he will rely on the junta. You mentioned the mobilization in Russia that is unfolding. But the best counterargument offered by our glorious Armed Forces was Makiivka. We understand how sobering it was for this mass, which they start recruiting.

It was painful. They, in fact, do not feel sorry for the dead soldiers or civilians in military uniforms. But the moment, locality, compatriotism. I am from Samara, and most of the dead are from Samara, I am told from Samara that they are being buried. They are buried, of course, not in bunches, so there is no sense of scale. One by one in the city districts, district centers, towns, and settlements of the Samara region. One by one, two by two, 5-10 by 5-10. So several hundred will be gathered. Certainly, it makes a depressing impression on ordinary people. I have seen videos in TikTok, such as "This is my son, he was in Makiivka, I don’t know where is he now", they appeal to Governor Azarov, they are afraid to say "Why is all this necessary?", in general, they support the plans of the leadership to protect the Motherland, but claims are already beginning. The Kremlin is cautiously approaching this: what it does not want to do and what it wants. It will mobilize, it needs to restore human resources after losses. It will not refuse to mobilize, but it will not be loud, it will not be simultaneous, as on September 21, so as not to irritate, not to frighten. To play the situation so that the population does not concentrate on the sad prospect of returning from Ukraine in black bags. The government knows how to maneuver, knows how not to dwell to such an extent that people go from fright to irritation, and from irritation to indignation. This will definitely not happen.

Why did they start this 100500th assault on Bakhmut, Soledar, Kreminna and so on with such hysterical necrophiliac stubbornness? The battles are extremely fierce, there is information that the Russians have already lost about 10 thousand two hundred there. I talked to our soldiers who are in the positions there, and they say that everything is literally covered with the corpses of Russian servicemen. But still, they are chased

There is one explanation: it is the same order to go to the borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. I think there is nothing new here. And they understand it this way because going to these borders would mean an opportunity to declare that the whole Donbas - Donetsk and Luhansk regions - as a result of the "operation" is controlled by Russia and is now Russian territory, etc. There is no other explanation for why they clung to this part of Ukraine. Because, firstly, they have been doing it for 8 years. The confrontation was in the JFO zone, the military operation began, so now they continue to fulfill this order, I see no other explanation, this is the order of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief - to go to the borders of the Donetsk region. There is no other route there, we must take Bakhmut, Soledar, and then Sloviansk, Kramatorsk and so on. They will make efforts to do this, they will not give it up, at least there are no signs of it. And they also do not pay attention to the losses and the price to be paid. Why? Because in the end there are no consequences. Not yet. These people are dying, hundreds, thousands. Despite this stream coming from relatives, so far it can be overcome through material compensation and fairy tales of propagandists about the protection of the Motherland, but will it always be so?

And why did the Russian-Chechen war scenario not work? Where are all those committees of soldiers' mothers? In reality, many of the killed return to Russia.

The difference is quite significant. I myself am a witness, I was during the war in Chechnya when I was a deputy, I met with Maskhadov, with the late Prosecutor General Mayev. The situation was different. The Committee of Soldiers' Mothers was active, and the opposition was in the Duma, we represented it, and the anti-war sentiment was very strong. And even among those soldiers who returned from Chechnya, and conscripts participated there, unlike the current situation, there were sentiments everywhere "why do we need it?" and "why are we dying?", while the number of losses was incomparably less, 3.5 thousand were lost, although I think it was more. And then it was possible to appeal to public opinion. It was weak, but it was there and gradually leaned towards anti-war considerations. This resulted in the Khasavyurt agreements, a long dragging in different directions - where Chechnya would be. It was possible. And now the situation is different.

Could Gerasimov play the role of the late General Lebed, one of the authors and signatories of the Khasavyurt agreements?

Only in case of some absolutely total, irreparable defeat.

“I think he can be such a peacemaker, but for this, it is necessary to significantly reduce the role of Putin himself”

The main decisions were made by the generals, who would be satisfied with the decision to withdraw from the war with the least losses, first of all for the military corporation. But this is unacceptable for Putin, it is the end of his political power. And here decisions should be made collectively, by collective military Putin, not by Commander-in-Chief Putin. So far, this has not happened yet. Let's see how it will be.

And who is part of this "collective Putin"? Apart from those figures that are on the surface? Putin is trying to stir up and untangle some of his apparatus, but in any case, Patrushev and others are only the visible part of the criminal "iceberg".

The decisions are made by Putin himself and the people close to him who offer him these draft decisions and analysis of why they are needed are all the same people: Patrushev, Bortnikov, as well as Kovalchuk Yuriy, who formally looks like Prigozhin, only very decent, in a suit. He is in charge of propaganda, he owns mass media and a number of channels and he holds Putin's "mutual fund," a bank and many other resources. These are billionaires. A person is very close to Putin, who replaces a bunch of advisers. There are also different groups of his personal staff, heads of his office and analysts. That is, these are people he sees every day. Contacts and communication are extremely important. He has isolated himself completely. Especially now the situation is such that he is paranoid: look, on Christmas Day he stood Orthodox service only one day. Where is it in the catechism, what kind of all-night vigil is this on Christmas Day, the birthday of Jesus? He communicates with everyone through a selector, in a video conference. There is no tactile contact, he is isolated. Therefore, this circle contains 3-5 people, it is not a wide circle of people with whom there is an exchange. And some people he adores, like Medvedev. Medvedev is his favorite, it has been forever. He just knows his value. It's like in the movie about Don Corleone "The Godfather", where the beloved's brother had to be drowned because he betrayed the main character. He loves him, but according to the rules he has to be killed and he is let off the boat.