ISW: Iran provides Russia with ballistic missiles, expecting to get Su-35 aircraft in return

This is stated in the report of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

After an anonymous U.S. official confirmed to The Wall Street Journal that Iran had delivered missiles to Russia, a senior European official said that new shipments of Iranian missiles to the aggressor country are expected.

The ISW recalled that in December 2023, Iran and Russia signed a contract for the delivery of Iranian Ababil short-range ballistic missiles and Fateh-360 short-range ballistic missiles. However, it is not specified which missiles are part of the recently transferred batch to Russia.

“Russia will likely use Iranian-provided ballistic missiles to target Ukrainian energy, military, and civilian infrastructure over the coming fall and winter to further destabilize Ukrainian society and disrupt Ukraine’s defense industrial base,” the analysts said.

The ISW also emphasized that the transfer of Iranian ballistic missiles is part of the deepening strategic partnership between Iran and Russia.

Experts of the Institute for the Study of War have repeatedly reported earlier on the expansion of economic, media, military and political cooperation between Moscow and Tehran since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Analysts are convinced that Iran seeks to benefit economically and militarily from expanding its partnership with Russia. Tehran has been seeking money for its undermined economy in exchange for arms sales to the Kremlin, and has been trying to acquire Russian Su-35 fighter jets. Iranian officials “pressured” Russia to supply Su-35s during a meeting with Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu in Tehran in August 2024.

“The acquisition of Su-35s could enable Iran to more readily and independently project air power, given that the current Iranian air fleet is outdated and poorly maintained. Iranian leaders have separately sought Russian support in upgrading their cyber capabilities and missile and space programs as part of the expanding military collaboration,” the report says.

• Earlier, British military analyst Sean Bell warned that Russia would soon receive two types of ballistic missiles from Iran, and that it was “inevitable.” 
• On September 6, the United States informed its allies that Iran had sent ballistic missiles to Russia. The United States and Europe are working on sanctions in response to Tehran's actions.