Trump: realist who knows the world isn’t Hollywood movie

When we talk about Trump, we must remember two important things. His negotiation principles are primarily reduced to two key points: the well-known formula "peace through escalation" and the lesser-known concept in our region, "strategic uncertainty." The latter implies that Trump simultaneously keeps all possible solutions on the table at once, ranging from a peace agreement to a prolonged war. Therefore, when we hear about Canada, Panama, or Greenland, we should keep these two negotiation formulas in mind.

Separately, I want to emphasize one, in my opinion, fundamental point: the demands voiced by Trump represent an ideal victory in his current worldview. But Trump is a realist, despite the fact that he is currently experiencing a classic Leninist "dizziness from success." Thus, he perfectly understands that the ideal world picture is not from reality but rather from some of Hollywood's not-so-great movies.

So, we are currently in a period of escalation before negotiations. In each case, the options will differ. No one even plans to annex Canada, Panama is threatened with a coup, and Denmark is being quickly offered to "liberate" Greenland. But let me reiterate: this is just the first phase of negotiations, which, of course, can drag on. However, everything suggests that it will not require either significant financial or human resources. This is very important.

I am not prepared to delve into futurology or predict how all this will end because I am not an expert in this area. In my non-expert opinion, there will definitely be no major war. 

"With a high degree of probability, Trump will achieve his goals. But, of course, not as ideally as was stated at the press conference. What we can clearly understand is that all these things mark the beginning of an economic confrontation with China and the escalation-driven start of negotiations with Beijing about future rules of the game. What these rules will be, for now, it seems that no one knows."

Now, the most important thing for us: the 100 days of Kellogg or the 180 days of Trump-Putin negotiations. Judging by everything, there is no alternative in Trump's team to the Kellogg plan, at least for now. And the negotiations will proceed based on its basic provisions: Ukraine's non-accession to NATO, demarcation along the front line, and a buffer zone. Plus, as far as can be judged from certain indirect signs — early elections in Ukraine.

This formula currently does not suit the Russians at all, who are demonstrating complete unwillingness to negotiate. However, for now, we can only understand that this is Trump's only plan, and as long as no alternative exists, he will push it through, albeit applying the principle of strategic uncertainty.

What should Ukraine's position be? I fear that, for now, our best course of action is to follow in the wake of Trump's plan while outlining red lines that are unacceptable to us.

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About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editorial board doesn't always share the opinions expressed by blog authors.