Will U.S. JASSM missiles impact Iranian arms support for Russia?

The first is Iran’s potential transfer of ballistic missiles to Russia. The second is the U.S. nearing a decision to permit strikes deep into Russian territory, possibly providing JASSM missiles with ranges from 370 to 800 km.

However, these two stories are very much connected. Back in 2022, Putin requested not only Shahed drones from Iran but also ballistic missiles. Initially, Iran agreed to the deal. But things changed, and the missiles never arrived. The U.S. response at that time was clear: if Russia acquired Iranian ballistic missiles, the U.S. would supply Ukraine with long-range missiles. This warning made Putin back off from securing the Iranian missiles.

In fact, this unspoken understanding was the main reason Ukraine was not allowed to strike deep into Russian territory or receive weapons with the necessary range. The U.S. didn't want to strengthen Iran with Russian technology in exchange for ballistic capabilities. Additionally, American analysts believed that Russia's stockpile of ballistic missiles wasn’t enough to impact the war significantly.

Where are we now? Putin is still trying to get missiles, even at the risk of retaliatory strikes on Russian territory. His strategy appears to be centered around using these missiles to target Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, likely believing that crippling the energy sector will force Ukraine to the negotiating table on his terms. The Russian General Staff seems to think a tough winter could sow discontent in Ukrainian society, potentially even sparking a revolution that might end the war on their terms. This reveals a lack of faith in their ability to win on the battlefield.

From our perspective, there's little immediate good here. But the fact that the U.S. has invoked its deterrence argument again could stop Iran from supplying missiles to Russia. Still, we likely won't get permission to hit deep within Russia.

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About the author. Viktor Andrusiv, political and public figure, analyst and publicist

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