Russian conscription fails to offset battlefield losses — ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported the information.

Analysts note that Russian officials continue to justify the Kremlin’s decision not to conduct a forced reserve call-up, despite signs that the Russian army is struggling to recruit enough new personnel to compensate for significant losses.

Chairman of the Defense Committee of the Russian State Duma, Andrey Kartapolov, stated on February 4 that Russia does not need to announce another partial forced call-up to the reserve, claiming that the country supposedly has a “battlefield advantage.”

Member of the State Duma Defense Committee Viktor Sobolev added that 740,000 people have signed contracts for service in the Russian army—likely since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. He also noted that mobilization “would only worsen the situation,” as it would lead to sending people to the front without military experience or specialized skills.

First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Defense, Andrey Krasov, also stated that mobilization is unnecessary since military commissariats are allegedly successfully recruiting new personnel.

Experts suggest that these statements by deputies aim to reassure the public and reduce concerns about a possible new partial forced call-up to the reserve, which remains unpopular among Russians.

However, the report emphasizes that the Russian army is likely struggling to recruit a sufficient number of new soldiers.

“ISW observed reports in late 2024 and January 2025 that the Russian military’s monthly recruitment rate is likely equal to or below the quantity needed to replace Russia’s monthly casualty rate one-to-one,” the report says.

Additionally, ISW obtained data indicating that certain regions of Russia are failing to meet their monthly conscription quotas, as citizens are increasingly reluctant to volunteer for combat.

On February 3, the Russian Defense Ministry proposed a draft amendment to reclassify certain illnesses, diseases, and disorders for conscripts and contract servicemen. Specifically, the proposal suggests reclassifying syphilis, hypertension, central nervous system atrophy, skin diseases, schizophrenia, psychotic disorders, affective disorders, and other health issues as milder conditions that do not disqualify individuals from military service.

• Previously, ISW reported that the Russian army continues to suffer heavy losses despite a slower pace of advance compared to the final months of 2024.
• The Russian army lost 1,270 soldiers in a single day of the war in Ukraine.