Half of Russia’s combat aircraft nearing end of service, say Polish analysts

Defense Express reports this. 

Polish defense outlet Defence24 reports that Russia’s military aviation fleet faces significant challenges, with 550 aircraft approaching the "end of their life cycle" and the defense industry struggling to replace aging planes. Constant losses in Ukraine and poor maintenance further weaken Russia’s air power.

The Russian military-industrial complex cannot produce enough new aircraft to replace the old ones, Defence24 highlights.

Analysts estimated that by late 2024, Russia will need to retire at least 60 aircraft purely due to resource exhaustion.

Aircraft nearing the end of service include Su-25 attack aircraft (160), Su-27 fighters (100), Su-24M bombers (270), MiG-29s (100), and MiG-31BM interceptors (80-90). The outlet explains that "end of the life cycle" doesn’t mean all planes will retire simultaneously, but they face resource limits that hinder sustained operation.

Russia’s losses in the Ukraine war are also mounting. According to the article, visual evidence confirms losses in early 2024 of at least one Tu-22M3, two A-50 radar aircraft, three Su-34s, two Su-35s, three Su-27s, and two MiG-31BMs. The report suggests actual losses are likely higher due to Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian facilities.

Production of new aircraft is lagging. In 2022, Russia delivered 27 new combat aircraft, dropping to 24 in 2023 and an expected 23 in 2024, the review notes.

As for Russia’s strategic aviation, it is estimated that its fleet includes 50 Tu-95MS bombers, 59 Tu-22M3 bombers, and 17 Tu-160s.

In a hypothetical full-scale conflict with NATO, Russia could "effectively use" up to 400 combat aircraft, including 340-360 tactical jets like Su-30s, Su-34s, Su-35s, and Su-57s. However, older Soviet-era planes may still see some use despite their age.