Risk of losing ships likely to force Russia not to block Ukrainian exports in Black Sea – British intelligence
Due to the risk of losing its Black Sea Fleet ships, Russia is likely to stop blocking Ukrainian trade in the Black Sea
This was reported by the UK Ministry of Defence.
It is noted that after a series of strikes in August and September, the Russian Black Sea Fleet has most likely doubled its defence. Russia has moved its ships and submarines from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk.
Despite the attacks by Ukrainian drones on Russian ships, the Black Sea Fleet continues to train, defend itself and launch missiles at Ukraine. It is noted that Russia is likely to do so from the eastern part of the Black Sea.
The intelligence community believes that the risk of further military losses and the political consequences of an outright Russian attack on merchant shipping would likely outweigh any gains from an attempt to force a blockade of trade in Ukraine.
Information on the grain corridor
On 17 July, Russia announced the termination of the grain deal. In response, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that it was necessary to continue using the grain corridor even despite Russia's withdrawal from the agreement.
On August 4, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov said that Ukraine would send ships with its own grain to wherever it deems necessary and would not ask anyone for permission.
On August 10, the Ukrainian Navy announced a temporary humanitarian corridor for merchant ships sailing to and from Ukrainian ports.
On September 28, media reported that Ukraine plans to open a new railroad corridor for grain exports.