Putin is in a hurry, but at the same time doesn't know what to do

I am certainly not a military expert, but I will allow myself a few comments about the current situation.

1. All pro-Russian mouthpieces yesterday and especially today shouted in one voice: peace is possible after negotiations between the USA and the Russian Federation. The peak of this cry was Lavrov's statement that Russia is ready to meet if Washington asks for it. On the one hand, the Russians want to demonstrate their strength again (a demonstration exclusively for Russians), they are trying to play on the lowering of the rating of the Democrats on the eve of the US elections, and, most importantly: they are simply begging the world to let them come to the negotiating table. What will happen if the West does not go to negotiations, the Kremlin does not know and does not understand. This, by the way, is one of the key points of the current situation.

2. The Russians' victorious reports about the shelling are, so far, primarily aimed at the domestic consumer. There, the political ambitions of the ultra-nationalists, who are already openly talking about changing the configuration of the parliament (Prygozhin's statement about the incompetence of the parliamentary opposition) and about their own party (Simonyan even came up with the name of the party: "Pravda"), must be extinguished. Putin simply does not understand what to do with this new reality, step by step he surrenders his positions as a one-man leader and alpha male (Surovikin's appointment from the same rank).

3. The Russians have two important problems: the first, which many people talk about, is the number of high-precision weapons. There is a high probability that it is relatively few. And now they shoot "no". It is difficult to say how true this is, but, judging by everything, there is a large part of the truth here. The second problem is the lack of meaning in this war. Russians do not understand what they are fighting for. And so far no sense is added. That is precisely why Putin needs negotiations (or quick victories, which are not yet visible on the horizon). Without it, society will demand a faster end to the war.

4. Putin is in a hurry. And at the same time does not know what to do. He and his entourage are still 90% living in the situation before 24.02, when they were powerful and scary. The problem for us and the civilized world is that the Russians still do not believe in defeat. They still think that their leadership has a plan b and will soon show that plan to everyone. It does not exist and cannot exist (horror stories about nuclear weapons do not count). Russian elites are currently engaged in war as a prelude to the transition of power. For most of them, war is a transit of power. Therefore, Putin's change is already a practically resolved issue. He, in the old guise of a one-man Fuehrer, is no longer there. Over the next month, he will increasingly lose that one-man power. I repeat once again, only effective negotiations can save him.

5. It will be very difficult for us in the coming weeks. The only thing to remember is that they will not be able to sustain such an intensity of shelling for a long time.

About the author: Vadim Denisenko, political scientist.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.