Putin is failing, so considers using nuclear weapons - ISW

The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) writes about this in its next analysis.

ISW cannot predict whether or when Putin will use nuclear weapons.  His latest threats are not fundamentally new and do not indicate rapid preparations for the use of nuclear weapons.  The enemy's crossing of the "red lines" established by Putin in Ukraine has not yet led to the threat of using nuclear weapons.

Putin is more likely to use nuclear weapons if he believes they will not trigger direct military intervention by the West using conventional weapons, and if he believes they will play a decisive role in the war with Ukraine, ISW suggests.

Putin's eagerness to negotiate indicates that, in his estimation, he cannot win this war with the forces he has, so he must freeze the conflict in Ukraine to buy time to regroup.

It is not clear what indicators Putin will use to gauge the success of his two main efforts to save the situation in Ukraine: rebuilding his own forces and trying to break the West's resolve through economic pressure.

He is likely to fail on both counts, but Putin may need more time to see the implications before deciding what to do next.

At best, Putin could hope that a tactical nuclear escalation would freeze the current front lines.  It would be a remarkable gamble, given the price it would pay if NATO stepped in and responded, according to the US-based Institute for the Study of War.