Putin celebrates birthday amid political fiasco

I remember the 70th anniversary of another master of the Kremlin - General Secretary of the CPSU's Central Committee Leonid Brezhnev. Portraits on the front pages of newspapers, another awarding of the jubilee with the star of the Hero of the Soviet Union.  Such was the celebration of the triumph of the then system. It was 1976. There were three years left before the invasion of the Soviet Union into Afghanistan…

Despite everything, despite the fear of the Soviet Union, despite the hatred of the system shared by millions of people, it cannot be said that anyone personally hated Brezhnev. Hatred of the system - yes, of the KGB - yes, of the social order - yes, of communist threats - yes. And the personality, despite the fact that Brezhnev was involved in the occupation of Czechoslovakia by Soviet troops, which in his time harassed the dissident movement and imprisoned people, did not cause such internal resistance.

Putin will celebrate his 70th birthday in a completely different atmosphere than when the head of the Soviet state celebrated his anniversary. There is a personal hatred of Putin that is even greater than hatred of the Russian Federation.

It is obvious that Putin wanted to celebrate the anniversary in a completely different way. When he launched his war against Ukraine in February 2022, he was apparently going to his 70th birthday as the head of the "union state" of Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus. He believed that other former Soviet republics would see how easily he dealt with Ukraine, and would themselves ask him to accept them into the "union state", fearing that the alternative would be war.

But it did not happen as the Russian president wanted. He celebrates his 70th birthday in the atmosphere of military defeats. Russian troops have to retreat in the east and south of our country, losing control over cities and towns that Putin annexed to the Russian Federation a few days ago.

Putin had to take unpopular measures. Under pressure from the military, he announced the mobilization of reservists although he had promised not to do so a few months ago.

Putin's real problem was that he actually exhausted the arsenal of threats that could affect the Ukrainian state and force its government to capitulate. He is forced to threaten Ukraine and the world with nuclear war.

And here is the dilemma. Stopping such rhetoric would mean admitting that he has no real leverage and will have to accept defeat; or risk and use nuclear weapons on Ukrainian territory. This, without a doubt, will change the situation in the world, cause the death of hundreds of thousands of people, and may be the beginning of the Third World War. In this way, Putin risks becoming the last leader of Russia, which will perish in a nuclear war along with the Russian people.

And who needs such a gift for 70 years? No one.

All this is actually a political fiasco. Every step of the Russian president is a diagnosis of his political weakness.

The one who wins a war doesn't annex territories not controlled by his army. The one who wins a war with an effective professional armed force doesn't mobilize reservists. The one who wins the war certainly does not threaten the enemy with nuclear weapons.

If we talk about Putin's personality, then once again it is necessary to say what is a historical law. The appearance of a random unprofessional person at the head of the state always causes a disaster for the fate of the people that this person leads. And maybe the disappearance of this nation and its state. It was, is, and will be.

About the author: Vitaly Portnikov, writer and journalist.

The edition does not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.