Kremlin violates its own "partial mobilization" claims, demonstrates fundamental, systemic weakness - ISW

The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) states in its report on September 29.

There are many contradictions regarding mobilization in the Russian Federation, which demonstrate the incoherence and imbalance of the entire military system of Russia. For example, Putin's orders to check the shortcomings of the mobilization began to be carried out by his subordinates after three days, and at the same time these shortcomings did not disappear. Also, from the side of the representatives of the Russian authorities, completely opposite statements were made regarding whether men who are on military registration can leave their permanent place of residence. And there are many similar examples.

"The Kremlin's contradictory statements and procedures demonstrate the fundamental nature of the systemic weakness of the Russian military establishment that characterizes the entire invasion. Russian officials continue to treat the alleged conscription of reservists as something confused between a call-up and a general mobilization announcement, likely issuing contradictory orders to an already flawed bureaucratic institution.", the report says.

Bureaucratic miscalculations of Russian mobilization indicate that Putin is once again bypassing the high military command or the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation and working directly with commanders on the ground, who probably require reinforcements. Hence the non-compliance with standard military practices, for example, the training of mobilized before being sent to the front line, experts say.

The Institute also assumes that the Armed Forces of Ukraine completed the encirclement of the Russian group in the Lyman area by the end of the day on September 29.

"Ukrainian troops broke through the Russian defense in the Stavok area (10 km north of Liman) and cut the Torske - Drobysheve road, which is the last supply and exit route for the Russians, who hold the line west of Lyman," analysts said.

The ISW wrote that the BARS-13 units and the 752nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Combined Arms Army, which were defending the Drobysheve and Lyman areas, found themselves in an "extremely difficult situation."

The SAF is attacking Liman from three directions and has already cut off the occupiers' access to the critical Svatove - Lyman road, which is the main ground line of communication (GLOC) supporting enemy groups in Lyman itself.

"Ukrainian troops will be able to take Lyman," analysts are convinced.

On September 29, the Armed Forces of Ukraine also continued counteroffensive operations along the Oskil river in northeastern Kharkiv region and attempted to break through Russian defenses near the border of Kharkiv and Luhansk Oblasts.

According to the data of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, during active hostilities, Ukrainian defenders inflict significant losses on the enemy:

• the Russian 4th Tank Division of the 1st Guards Tank Army has suffered significant losses in recent weeks in Kupyansk, which is located near the Oskil river (the border of the Kharkiv - Luhansk region).

• in the previous stages of the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian troops in the Kharkiv region, the 4th Tank Division of the Russian Federation lost almost an entire regiment of advanced T-80 tanks.