ISW pinpoints Putin's scapegoat for Ukraine war failures

This analysis of current events was produced by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

According to the ISW experts, growing criticism of Russia's partial mobilization and failures at the front push Putin to blame Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

Thus, by his decree, the Kremlin postponed the mobilization of all students, including part-time students and Master's students, and publicly stated that the Ministry of Defense had failed to make timely changes to the regulatory framework for the lists if groups that are not subject to mobilization, demanding corrections.

ISW analysts stress that Putin seems to be setting Shoigu up as his fall-man for the failure of Russia's Ukraine invasion.

Putin though, is in no hurry to fire Shoigu, opting instead to keep him in his post as long as possible, in order to continue to blame him for the military failures and win him time to gain support from other groupings, primarily among the security forces, the ISW says.

"Shoigu's replacement will have to take responsibility for the failures that will occur after the start of his tenure," the report said.

Putin is already working to improve his support among nationalist bloggers and security forces, such as Wagner PMC creator Yevgeny Prigozhin and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, whom he promoted to colonel general, experts say.

At the same time, the Russian authorities detained the manager of several pro-war Telegram channels, which indicates that the Kremlin is further tightening the screws on criticism allowed in the domestic Russian information space.