Factors hindering Russian movement in Pokrovsk direction. Serhiy Zgurets’ column

Massive Ukrainian drone attack on Russia

Missile and combined attacks have become routine during the war with Russia. When assessing these attacks, we often consider the number of strikes or their outcomes. On September 1, the largest attack on Russia and Moscow took place, involving a significant number of long-range Ukrainian combat drones. I believe there were over 200, considering Russia claims to have shot down 158. Ukraine struck the Moscow Oil Refinery in Kapotnya. Interestingly, this plant is located just 16 km from the Kremlin. Additionally, two power stations, several locations housing Russian military personnel, and two other enterprises were also hit.

Once again, the Russian air defense system demonstrated its own helplessness, despite the fact that there are over two dozen S-300 and S-400 missile defense system divisions and up to a dozen Pantsir systems around Moscow. Even those brought from the Arctic and installed on towers didn’t help.

Russia's September 2 missile attack on Kyiv

On the night of September 2, Russia launched cruise and ballistic missile strikes against Ukraine and the capital city, Kyiv. Ukraine's air defense detected 58 targets in total: 35 missiles and 23 drones. Surprisingly, a large number of ballistic missiles were involved. According to Ukraine's Air Defense Command, out of 16 North Korean KN-23 and Iskander-M missiles, 9 were shot down. Additionally, 13 out of 14 cruise missiles were intercepted, with one failing to reach its target, likely due to technical reasons.

However, in the afternoon, the Defense Express agency obtained a photo of debris from another intercepted missile from its sources. It was neither a cruise missile nor a North Korean missile. Based on its markings, it was identified as a fragment of a Russian 48N6DM missile from the S-400 system. Russia occasionally uses such missiles to strike the capital. This is a guided surface-to-air missile with a range of over 200 km, but in a "ground-to-ground" configuration, it quickly loses its guidance, relying only on an inertial navigation system.

It can be concluded that the Russian army deliberately targeted Kyiv, knowing that the missile would reach the city, crash somewhere, and cause casualties. In these circumstances, this missile lacks precision. However, the air defense managed to intercept it, which is a positive outcome. This means that, in addition to the missiles reported by the Air Force Command, we can add the interception of the S-400 missile. It's good that the air defense succeeded in this task, even if it was not officially reported, which is better than the alternative.

Pokrovsk direction

At the front, the most challenging situation is in the Pokrovsk direction. The map shows a bulge towards Pokrovsk, approximately 18 km wide and about 15 km deep. About one-third of all combat engagements across the 1,200 km front are taking place in this area, where a significant number of Russian forces are concentrated.

What's the dynamic over the past few days? We know that the Russian army has been attempting to advance toward Pokrovsk, specifically along the line of Hrodivka, Novohrodivka, Krasnyi Yar towards Myrnohrad. However, the Russia's advance along this line has been slowed. Two factors played a role in this. First, the reserves. We know that the National Guard's Kara-Dag brigade was deployed there. We’ve already seen videos where a tank from this brigade directly destroyed a Russian armored personnel carrier with an assault group. Russia's advance has also stalled for other reasons, as they have shifted their main efforts to two sections in the south.

It seems that the pace of the Russian advance towards Pokrovsk will depend on the outcome of the situations on these other fronts, if there will be any advance at all. The first key area is Selydove, where Russian troops are launching assaults, trying to secure their flank for a push toward Pokrovsk. Currently, Selydove is facing both frontal and flank attacks.

However, Selydove is holding out, and the frontline remains relatively stable despite Russian forces' efforts. The second critical area is to the southeast, near the settlements of Memryk and Karlivka. Here, Russia is attempting to advance along the western and eastern banks of the Vovcha River towards Kurakhivka.

The Russian maneuvers are quite dangerous because for the Ukrainian forces positioned in the triangle of Karlivka - Nevelske - Krasnohorivka, the distance to the settlements of Halytsynivka and Krasnohorivka is about 6 km. West of this notional line, Ukrainian brigades are positioned, continuing to hold the defense. There are up to four combat-ready brigades in this area. The question now is what will happen next? Will this area be held, or will there be a withdrawal of troops? It is difficult to predict because the dynamics will depend on the reserves on both sides.

We understand that this direction is extremely critical at the moment, with forces and resources being redirected there. We will continue to monitor the situation closely and follow updates from the Ukrainian Armed Forces' General Staff.

Toretsk direction

Let's now discuss another direction where the situation is also extremely challenging—the Toretsk direction, where the number of combat engagements is somewhat lower than in Pokrovsk.

Yevhen Alkhimov, the press officer of the 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade named after the Knights of the Winter Campaign, reported that the Russian army continues to assault settlements near Toretsk, using small assault groups. For example, if an enemy assault group tries to secure a position or building, Ukrainian defenders employ both infantry and drones. If it's not possible to clear the building with infantry, FPV drones make it impossible for Russian troops to hold the building, and then drones clear the basements and any remaining areas.

The press officer noted that every day, Russian troops use guided bombs. Recently, Ukraine's 28th Brigade managed to shoot down a Russian Su-25 aircraft using a man-portable air-defense system (MANPADS). The air defense unit was on duty, spotted the aircraft, locked on, and successfully shot it down. Although this has not significantly reduced the number of Russian aircraft, it has forced Russia to fly at greater distances. Since the assault aviation operates closer to the front line, it has become more difficult for the Russians, and their accuracy has decreased.

Alkhimov also mentioned that, as an experiment, the brigade is using a robot dog, which has performed well in urban environments. Unlike FPV drones, a robot dog can enter buildings, climb stairs, and conduct reconnaissance in place of infantry. When deployed ahead of infantry, it acts as a ground drone, which is more maneuverable in urban settings. In cases where Russian troops are hiding in a basement, an explosive device can be attached to the robot and sent into the basement.

Alkhimov pointed out that there is currently parity with Russian forces in the use of FPV drones, but this depends on the specific unit operating in a given area. Against one Russian unit, there was an advantage, but then another unit arrived, and the situation balanced out. Currently, Russia relies more on assault groups, so at this moment, Ukrainian forces have a superiority in drones.

Yevhen mentioned that the drone strike company in the 28th Brigade has now expanded to a battalion because this direction is very important, with significant damage being inflicted on Russian forces by FPV drone operators. Therefore, anyone interested in joining this battalion is welcome. It's important to note that the 28th Brigade has a recruitment center that guides individuals from civilian life to becoming soldiers. The training is conducted within the brigade itself, preparing recruits for the specific tasks they will face.