Russian counteroffensive in Kursk region has achieved minor success — ISW

This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Geolocation footage released on September 12 shows that Russian troops made minor advances west of Vishnevka (southwest of Korenevo) and in northern Krasnooktyabrskoye (southwest of Korenevo).

The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that Russian troops had recaptured 10 settlements south and southwest of Korenevo after launching counterattacks on the night of September 10-11, including Apanasovka, Byakhovo, Vishnevka, Viktorovka, Vnezapnoye, Gordeevka, Krasnooktyabrskoye, Obukhovka, Snagost, and 10-y Oktyabr.

All of these settlements are within the current stated limit of Russian advance, and ISW has yet to visually confirm that Russian troops have retaken any of these settlements, except parts of Snagost and Krasnooktyabrskoye, the institute's analysts say.

Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces continued advancing southeast of Korenevo and northeast of Snagost (southwest of Korenevo), although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of these claims.

Ukrainian forces continued counterattacking in areas where Russian forces have launched counterattacks and launched additional attacks outside of the salient, making gains in Glushkovsky Raion (west of Korenevsky Raion). Geolocated footage published September 12 indicates that Ukrainian infantry have advanced across the border and into southwestern Tetkino (about 40km southwest of the current Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast). Additional geolocated footage published on September 12 shows Ukrainian armored vehicles and infantry bypassing Russian dragon's teeth anti-tank obstacles on the Russian-Ukrainian border southwest of Novy Put (southwest of Glushkovo) unopposed, indicating that Ukrainian forces have advanced in the area and that Russian forces were not prepared to leverage the obstacles to repel cross-border Ukrainian assaults. Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued assaults near Novy Put, Medvezhye (southeast of Glushkovo), Snagost, Olgovka (east of Korenevo), and Fanaseyevka (southeast of Sudzha).

ISW military experts note that Russian troops have advanced so far in areas of Kursk region that Ukrainian forces were not yet fully controlling nor attempting to control, and Russian forces will likely face more difficulty when counterattacking Ukrainian-controlled territory.

ISW uses the doctrinal definition of "control" when referring to control of terrain in which "control is a tactical mission task that requires a commander to maintain physical influence over a specified area to prevent its use by an enemy or to create conditions necessary for successful friendly operations." Russian forces have advanced roughly 58 square kilometers in areas where ISW has observed either maximalist claims or visual evidence of Ukrainian forces operating since starting counterattacks on the night of September 10 to 11. 

“Ukrainian forces have not attempted to consolidate positions everywhere in their salient in Kursk Oblast, and it is likely that Ukrainian forces had fewer consolidated positions in forward areas at the edges of the salient where Russian forces have recently advanced. Ukrainian forces most certainly control territory within some areas of the salient in Kursk Oblast, although ISW will continue to refrain from mapping Ukrainian control of terrain in Russia. Russian counterattacks against better prepared and consolidated positions in territory where Ukrainian forces exert control will likely be far less successful than the counterattacks Russian forces launched on September 10 to 11,” ISW explained.

• On September 11, DeepState wrote that the situation on the left flank of the Ukrainian group in the Kursk region had deteriorated, with Russian troops launching active assault operations.
• On September 12, the Institute for the Study of War reported that the Russian army had begun to storm the positions of the Ukrainian military in the Kursk region. Russia captured several settlements in the region.
• Dmytro Sniehyriov, a military expert and co-chairman of the Prava Sprava civil organization, also noted that Russia had created the Bryansk and Belgorod tactical groups, each with 20,000 to 30,000 personnel.
• President Volodymyr Zelenskyy commented on the counteroffensive of Russian troops in Russia's Kursk region, which is controlled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. He assured that everything was in line with Ukraine's plan.