Vuhledar is good point for Ukraine's Armed Forces to start moving towards Azov Sea coast. Military results of this week -Serhiy Zgurets’

Attack on Kyiv by Russian "hypersonic" missile Kh-47 Kinzhal on May 4 

Defense Express prepared this information based on open sources and our analysis, and made assumptions based on the analysis of those images. We started with a report from the Kyiv Military administration that ballistic missiles were likely to be used on May 4 at 6 a.m. and were shot down. A few hours later, the National Police reported that they had seen some debris. Before that, there was a message from the Air Force that Ukraine had received systems that could fight ballistic targets. And when we received information from the images, we concluded that it was highly likely that these were Kinzhal ballistic missiles. In my opinion, Defense Express journalists did not violate any canons related to the preparation of such information. 

The drone attack on the Kremlin on May 3

Commenting on the situation with the explosion of the unmanned aerial vehicle over the Kremlin, I do not exclude that this is the work of either Ukrainian-Russian guerrillas or, relatively speaking, elites who are now somehow trying to create conditions to cancel parades in cities around the Russian capital and create a certain amount of excitement in order to "prepare for a full-scale war with NATO." I think that the events of this week are truly epoch-making, and yet I hope that sooner or later we will find out who was behind these attack drones that exploded over the Kremlin.

Also, in my opinion, if we look at when this video was published, how it was shot in a cinematic way, with good angles, with good lighting, it is unclear what those two people were doing on the roof. As for the video posted by the financier of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin: I think he understood all these nuances and, I think, used the moment to show that he was a little bit removed from these disputes. Because he is engaged in a "big state business" and is trying to get Bakhmut, despite the fact that criminals are dying there one by one. 

The situation in and around Bakhmut

Prigozhin says that if there is no supply of ammunition, the Russian army will leave Bakhmut on the 10th. I think they will not leave because they will be destroyed either by the Ukrainian side or by the Russian side, but today the Deputy Minister of Defense said that the enemy is actually trying to accumulate some strength under the veil of these information statements by Prigozhin in order to push through the defense of Bakhmut until May 9. However, we understand that the enemy will not succeed, because our Armed Forces are determined to give a full rebuff, which has already lasted for 10 months.

Now the fighting continues in the same areas as before. Russian enemy is trying to advance to the high-rise area, trying to cross the defense line in the area of Tchaikovsky and Korsunsky, where the fighting continues. In fact, we are holding the flanks where our artillery makes it impossible for the enemy to somehow cross the communication lines that supply Bakhmut. Our artillery is working, the roads have dried up, and we can use not only the Ivanivske, Bakhmut, Bakhmut-Khromove roads, but also other roads that are now supplying the area held by our military.

I think that nothing will change by May 9 - this is a fundamental issue for the Ukrainian side. The dynamics look like this: the forces that are being sent to support Bakhmut are coping quite effectively with the enemy forces that are being pulled up to this section of the front. Russian enemy is trying to squeeze through, sending assault units and using flamethrower systems and aircraft, as well as planning bombs to destroy houses. 

Questions about evacuation from Avdiivka

Evacuation from Avdiivka is an issue that has been raised many times. There are some residents who do not want to do it, and even those with children are staying there under fire, which raises a lot of questions. Perhaps this evacuation is aimed at limiting the leakage of certain information to the Russian side, and we should also mention that similar measures have been taken in Kherson. Not an evacuation, but the closure of the city for three days, where certain actions will be taken to strengthen security and prevent information leakage. These new nuances are aimed primarily at the successful execution of actions by our Armed Forces. 

Also, during the week, the enemy was observed moving towards Avdiivka, Marinka and Vuhledar. That is, Avdiivka and Marinka were more dynamic, but there was no enemy advance there. As for Avdiivka, there were indeed attacks in the area of Krasnohorivka and Sievierne, but the dynamics have not changed either, Ukrainian units are holding this section of the frontline and I think the enemy has very little hope of moving. And the situation in Vuhledar: there were reports that Ukrainian troops were taking some counteroffensive actions, and there were many such stories in Russian channels. Vuhledar is extremely important for Ukraine because it is one of the good points to start cutting through the Russian group and moving to the Azov Sea coast. Vuhledar is of particular interest to the Ukrainian side in terms of prospects and to the enemies who want to somehow protect themselves from such a danger. 

Counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

Regarding the explosions in various temporarily occupied cities this week, the Ukrainian side is weakening the enemy's ability to support its troops with fuel and ammunition as much as possible.

Let's take a look at these explosions: Novoshakhtynsk, Ilsk, Taman, Feodosia - these strikes were targeted at fuel hubs in one way or another. This will complicate the supply of groups that will move through these areas. Ammunition depots were also hit - this is related to preparatory actions. In the future, this dynamic should increase, and this will include artillery work on enemy firepower, command posts and ammunition depots. In my opinion, this will be done simultaneously in several areas so that the enemy cannot determine the direction of the main attack and so that we always have a manoeuvre in terms of choosing the direction that will be most promising at that time.

Transfer of F-16 fighters

I think that the issue of F-16s is really a political issue, and it has been raised repeatedly at the US level, although US generals have said that this is the 8th priority that needs to be met today so that Ukraine can successfully launch a counteroffensive.

However, it is worth noting that this logic does not suit the Ukrainian side, and therefore the president and other officials raise the issue that the transfer of F-16s is necessary to strengthen the capabilities of the Ukrainian army. But, as Zelenskyy said, the counteroffensive will begin without waiting for F-16s, and we need to look for other options that will help our troops on the battlefield.

I think that the issue of F-16s has been resolved internally for all NATO countries in terms of supporting Ukraine. But this first or last political step, in terms of transfer, is being delayed. If this decision had been made much earlier, our troops would have been covered by aviation based on F-16s and long-range weapons, which are the main features of these aircraft. 

Could the drone army replace the F-16 at some point in the war?

This is too optimistic an assumption, because these drones have a range of 3 to 5 km, sometimes more, but we understand that we need to hit the enemy at least 80-100 km away and here, unfortunately, these drones will not help us, but they can fulfil their function and ensure panic on the first line of defense of the enemy, so that the enemy runs away under the onslaught of these drones. I think it's a good decision, supported by the Ministry of Digital Transformation, which is a new segment of weapons that is being actively supplied to the Armed Forces.

Forecasts for the next week

I think that the next week will be difficult because the enemy will try to launch missile strikes before May 9 and possibly on May 9, so that the russian soldiers have grounds for a thieving celebration. I think that air defense will work quite effectively, we understand all these risks and the potential that the Armed Forces and the Air Force have. It will be a difficult week, but the we will be protected by air defense.