Russia knew about Ukraine's Kursk offensive plans

Secret documents found by the Ukrainian military after they took control of a part of the Kursk region of the Russian Federation and partially published in the Western media show that the Russian military was aware of the danger of a possible Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region and, moreover, could have foreseen a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha, which is now under the operational control of the Ukrainian military command.

One might wonder why this understanding of the situation did not lead to the Russians fortifying themselves in the Sudzha area, increasing the number of their troops in the Kursk region, and thus creating a situation that would have made it impossible for a Ukrainian raid on the sovereign territory of the Russian Federation.

And there are several obvious answers.

“The first is that in an authoritarian state with no parliamentary or public control over the government's actions, there is an inertia of good news: the head of state lives in his own world, and no one in his inner circle dares to tell him what is really going on, for fear of losing the favorable position and control over financial flows for which he came to power.”

And this tendency, of course, continues from the first person to the officials who carry out the orders of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of such a country in the post-Soviet space. This is a trend in general, especially when it comes to people who came to power by accident as a result of an oligarchic or clan agreement. And such people, as we seem to have forgotten, include Vladimir Putin.

So, no one wanted to disturb anyone. The Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, General Gerasimov, did not want to disturb Putin, General Gerasimov's subordinates did not want to disturb the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, and their subordinates also tried to hide information about the possibility of a Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region.

And this offensive was possible despite the fact that the Russians could have been aware, if not of the details of this offensive, at least to monitor its preparations, the accumulation of troops, the operational situation in the area of the Sumy region of Ukraine neighboring Kursk region. All of this could have been information. However, the information came to Vladimir Putin when it was already too late, and Ukrainian troops unexpectedly launched an offensive against this Russian region, not for Putin, but for the officers who were in the Kursk region.

“Another important reason why the Russians might not have responded to the messages from the military in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation is that the command of the Russian Armed Forces simply does not have enough additional forces. The main goal of the Russian army now is to establish control over the territory of Donetsk region.”

This was the task Vladimir Putin set for his troops when he decided to launch the so-called special military operation against Ukraine. We have already forgotten about it. We have forgotten that the beginning of the special operation was accompanied by Vladimir Putin's decision to recognize the so-called independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics invented by the Kremlin.

Later, these Ukrainian regions, declared people's republics, were annexed by the Russian Federation and written into its constitution under their own names, invented by President Putin's administration. But then, as of February 2022, Putin was saying that he recognized these pseudo-states in their territorial integrity, i.e., within the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and the main thing his army should do is not only change the government in Kyiv to bring puppets to the Ukrainian capital in tanks, but also help the newly independent states restore their territorial integrity.

And now Putin has been fulfilling this task for two and a half years, and every day of delay in establishing full control over the territory of the Donetsk region of Ukraine is, of course, a disgrace for the Russian military command. Vladimir Putin constantly reminds him of this during his dialogues with the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, General Valery Gerasimov, and the smug general is already tired of it.

In this situation, when it comes to the need for forces to protect the Kursk region from a theoretical offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and the need for forces to drive Ukrainian troops out of Pokrovsk, enter a new strategic direction and move to the full capture of Donetsk region at least by the end of 2024, of course, the leadership of the Russian troops chooses the Donetsk direction rather than the Kursk direction.

“This explains the fact that even after Ukrainian troops appeared on the territory of Kursk, the Russian military command delayed for a long time the creation of a group that would try to drive Ukrainian forces beyond Russia's sovereign borders, thus creating opportunities for the Ukrainian army to gain a foothold in the region, so that the very possibility of fighting the Ukrainian army in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation would prove to be a difficult task for the Russian army.”

But I repeat: the question is about priorities. On the one hand, you don't want to give your commanders bad news that could create an unpleasant atmosphere in the communication between Putin and Gerasimov, and on the other hand, you don't have additional soldiers and additional equipment because all your efforts are focused on the offensive in the Donetsk region and on defending your positions in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions of Ukraine. In such a situation, of course, it's better to ignore the fact that your officers in the Kursk region tell you that Ukrainian troops could be here in a few weeks. Because you don't think about where Ukrainian troops should be, you think about where Russian troops should be. And this is what determines your promotion, your new position, and control over financial flows, which remains the main goal of everyone in the current Russian government, everyone who is trying to build friendly relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin and his inner circle.

Well, with such an approach to things, you can lose not only the Kursk region.

About the author. Vitalii Portnikov, journalist.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.