Putin's main task is to push Ukrainian forces out of Kursk region - political expert

Dmitry Oreshkin, a professor at the Free University of Riga, said this in an interview with Antin Borkovskyi, host of the Studio West program on Espreso.

"In the coming months, this will be Putin's main task - to push the Ukrainian Armed Forces out of the Kursk region, and then it will be up to him. As for Pokrovsk, the same Kursk region doesn't allow Russia to attack on a broad front. Russia now has the opportunity to advance in only one narrow direction - towards Pokrovsk. It's clear that this is a very important point, but even if Russia takes control of it in 3-4 months, perhaps sooner or later, and at the same time retains a piece of the Kursk region, it will not be a victory for Putin. He needs to paint victory on his banners, explain that he has ensured the security of the Russian people, and then move on to the difficult agreements that are still waiting for him," he said.

According to Oreshkin, all such conflicts end when both sides feel exhausted and unable to make serious progress anywhere.

"It seems to me that the situation is already approaching this state. We see that the front line has generally stabilized, if we are not talking about Pokrovsk specifically. There are some advances, but they cannot be called rapid and victorious. In terms of strategy, it is clear that Putin's plans for denazification, demilitarization, and the removal of the Kyiv "bloody regime," NATO, etc. have not been implemented. And they will not be realized. Now the collective Putin is thinking about how to get out of this story with a pretty face. The Kursk region does not add to Putin's beautiful expression. This means that the strategic idea of abandoning European value systems and switching to the Chinese-Kadyrov-North Korean value system is a failure in strategic terms," he added.

Sooner or later, the war will end and negotiations on how to get out of this unnatural situation will begin, the political scientist noted: "Now the Ukrainian Armed Forces have brought a very big trump card for Zelenskyy in these negotiations. Because Putin needs to get out of this war. It is clear that he will no longer be able to conquer Kherson or Zaporizhzhia, and all the talk about recapturing these four regions, which he has already declared Russian, has turned into nothing.”

Ukraine’s cross-border incursion in Russia’s Kursk region

On August 6, the authorities of Russia's Kursk region stated that the Ukrainian Armed Forces allegedly tried to break through the Russian border, but were allegedly pushed back. Later, the Russian Defense Ministry reported that "the Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group retreated to its territory.”

Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate refused to comment on the statements regarding the Kursk region. However, NV media, citing its own source in Ukrainian intelligence, wrote that the events in the Kursk region "definitely did not involve fighters of the Russian Volunteer Corps, who are fighting as part of Ukraine's Armed Forces.”

The Institute for the Study of War noted that the Russian Defense Ministry, acting governor of the Kursk region Alexei Smirnov, and some propagandists have different versions of the events in the Kursk region.

On August 7, Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin convened the Russian military leadership to discuss the situation in the Kursk region, which he called a "large-scale provocation." At the time, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova called on the international community to "strongly condemn the Kyiv regime's criminal attacks on Russian territory."

On the same day, Russian media reported that workers at the Kursk nuclear power plant feared that the plant's management had not prepared for a possible attack by the Ukrainian armed forces.

Additionally, in the Kursk region, the Russians have started forming UAV operator units from civilians, providing them with up to 10 hours of training.

On August 7, a state of emergency was introduced in the Kursk region.

On August 8, the Institute for War Studies reported that Ukrainian troops confirmed advancing up to 10 km deep into the Kursk region as mechanized offensives continued.

On August 8, Russia’s National Guard announced that it had implemented additional security measures at the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant to protect a "particularly important facility."

The Washington Post reported that Ukraine has taken control of the gas metering station in Sudzha, Kursk region. Previously, Russia claimed that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had occupied several border villages and part of the town of Sudzha.

Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh stated that Ukraine’s actions in the Kursk region in Russia "are consistent with U.S. policy" and do not cause any escalation.

On Friday, August 9, it was reported that terrorists from PMC Wagner intend to fight for Russia in the Kursk region.

The Wall Street Journal, citing its own sources, reported that Russian military leaders have decided to withdraw some of their occupation forces from Ukraine to redeploy them to the Kursk region in response to Ukraine’s military operations.

On August 13, John Kirby, Strategic Communications Coordinator at the White House National Security Council, suggested that if Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin is concerned about the developments in the Kursk region, he could choose to end the war.

Since the start of August 14, the Defense Forces have captured over 100 Russian soldiers.

At a meeting with the president on August 15, Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said that Ukraine had established the first military commandant's office in the Kursk region to provide humanitarian aid to local residents.

At the same time, Ukraine's Ministry of Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories, together with the military, is currently working on a possible route for a humanitarian corridor for civilians from Kursk to Sumy.

On August 15, The Independent reported that about 2,000 Russian servicemen were captured during an operation by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region.

Ukrainian troops continue to operate in the Kursk region. As of August 19, the Ukrainian Armed Forces took control of 92 settlements.

On August 20, Russian leader Vladimir Putin ordered the military to push Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk region by October 1, 2024.

On September 13, it became known that in August 2024, Russians submitted 1,927 appeals to Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin regarding missing or captured soldiers. This is a record number since the beginning of the full-scale invasion.

On the same day, Zelenskyy said that Russia was seeking to deploy 60,000-70,000 troops to the Kursk region. According to him, the enemy has launched a rapid offensive there, but has not had any serious success.