Azerbaijani plane crash may become problem for Putin – analyst

The incident with the Azerbaijani plane is gaining new details and could become a problem for Putin and Kadyrov, says Oleksiy Kopytko, military analyst, former advisor to the Minister of Defense of Ukraine. 

“Yesterday, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev celebrated his birthday, turning 63. This morning he headed to St. Petersburg to attend an informal summit of CIS heads of state. However, during the flight he received information about the crash of Azerbaijan Airlines plane, which was flying Baku-Grozny, but ended up in the area of Aktau (Kazakhstan). Aliyev decided to return to Baku, created a commission to investigate the incident and said that there are different versions, but it is worth waiting for the results of the investigation,” the analyst writes on his Telegram channel. 

According to the version instantly launched in the Russian media, the flight approaching Grozny was diverted to Makhachkala due to “deteriorating weather”. But there was fog in Makhachkala, so the plane was sent to Aktau. During this flight, it allegedly collided with birds, got damaged and crashed during the landing approach, killing at least 38 on board.

The distance between Baku and Grozny is about 460 km including maneuvers. The distance from Grozny to Makhachkala is about 120 kilometers. That is, everything is very close. At the time of making the decision to “redirect” it must have been known that there was fog in Makhachkala.

The distance from Makhachkala to Baku is only 30 km more than to Aktau. 

The experts already have a lot of questions: why was it necessary to fly across the sea to a regional airfield in another country, if it was possible to return to a modern airport in Baku, where all the service, including incident response, is at a qualitatively different level?

“Possible answers are contained in the video from the cabin of the airplane. The damage is very similar to the result of firing at the airplane from some air defense system. And these damages were received over the territory of Russia, over Chechnya or Dagestan. 

As soon as this video went viral on the net, unofficial Russian channels began to actively throw in the version about the alleged attack of the plane by a “Ukrainian UAV”.

“Indirect confirmation of the version with air defense fire: Azerbaijan Airlines suspends flights from Baku to Grozny and Makhachkala until the investigation into the causes of the plane crash is completed. If the reason is bad weather and birds - why suspend flights?” the analyst asks.

“It looks like they tried to send the plane to Makhachkala and then to Aktau away from everybody’s eyes. And if it had landed normally, everything could have been hushed up. In Baku, even in case of a successful landing, it would have been much more difficult to conceal the attack on the plane by Russian air defense,” Kopytko says.

Now everything depends on how the President of Azerbaijan will perceive the incident. Judging by the way the information is already presented, there is at least tacit permission not to hide the true cause. 

“And the most probable reason is the work of the air defense system, given to protect Kadyrov. The question immediately arises, what if the Russian air defenses had worked on another plane, such as Aliyev's presidential flight?” the analyst concludes.