US may provide Ukraine with ATACMS missiles to liberate Crimea - military expert

Valentyn Badrak, Director of the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies, reported this. 

“The lack of Western-made tactical missiles and combat aircraft makes the Ukrainian Defense Forces' offensive too risky. However, there are many signs that President Biden, who is most afraid of a direct clash between NATO and Russia, was comfortable with this risk until recently, and he was ready to refuse to support Ukraine in liberating Crimea,” he said, adding that this was the reason why the American leader refused to transfer ATACMS tactical missiles.

This includes shelling military facilities in Crimea, destroying an enemy column near Enerhodar, and eliminating command posts up to 80 kilometers away.

However, Prigozhin's failed coup forced the West to notice the weakness of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, and his flight from Moscow and change of rhetoric in the face of real danger indicate the possibility of liberating Crimea and Donbas in 2023 - if Ukraine receives missile support, the expert believes.

“Biden is expected to make a decision in the coming days that will instantly 'unlock' the missile option in Germany, and Ukraine will receive German Taurus analogs with a range of up to 400-500 in addition to the British Storm Shadow cruise missiles,” the message says. 

NATO can provide Ukraine with 200-300 ATACMS missiles and 48 F-16 or F-18 aircraft. This will compensate for the worn-out and limited number of Su-24 aircraft.

“Biden's team is well aware that the Ukrainian army is operating under increased risks and has already become a hostage to big politics - when, on the one hand, there is a carefully prepared, deeply echeloned defense of Russian groups, and on the other, Europe has already begun to talk about serious pressure on Kyiv to freeze the war and start peace talks with Moscow if the offensive fails in three months,” the expert wrote, concluding that in order to succeed, the Ukrainian army command must sacrifice trained personnel to make up for the lack of tactical missiles and aircraft.

What is known about sending ATACMS to Ukraine

On April 19, the United States announced another USD 325 million military aid package to Ukraine, which will include HIMARS and artillery shells.

At the end of May, representatives of the US Congress called on Biden to send the missiles to Ukraine. In a letter addressed to the US President, the leaders of the bipartisan Helsinki Commission called on the White House to authorize the delivery of the US Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) to Ukraine.

On June 10, members of both parties in the US House of Representatives introduced a resolution calling on Joe Biden to transfer ATACMS to Ukraine.

On June 21, the House Foreign Affairs Committee supported a resolution to Biden calling for the immediate transfer of ATACMS to Ukraine.

The Wall Street Journal writes that the United States is close to making a decision to provide Ukraine with long-range tactical missile systems ATACMS.