Russia is pressuring Belarus to make concessions

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) shares the information in its report.

The Institute claims that Russia's increased pressure on Belarus reduces Alexander Lukashenko's room for maneuver to avoid concessions to the Kremlin.

"Russian President Vladimir Putin’s long game to reestablish suzerainty over Belarus is making progress separate and apart from Putin’s efforts to get Belarus more actively involved in his invasion of Ukraine," the Institute believes.

Lukashenko confirmed that Russia "gave" an unspecified number of S-400 air defense systems to Belarus during a meeting with Putin in Minsk on December 19. Earlier, the self-proclaimed president rejected the S-400 system operating in Belarus in 2020.

Russian servicemen are likely to operate S-400 systems based in Belarus.

"Lukashenko is likely delaying acceding to Putin’s larger demands - such as committing Belarusian forces to join the invasion against Ukraine - by making smaller concessions that he has stonewalled for years," ISW experts claim.

Despite the deployment of Russian tanks in Belarus, analysts do not yet see signs of an attack on Ukraine from the Republic of Belarus.

• On December 15, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valerii Zaluzhnyi said that he does not rule out Russia launching an attack on Kyiv from Belarus. The Russian Federation may repeat the attack on Kyiv in January or February 2023. Currently, the aggressor country is training about 200,000 new soldiers.
• On December 19, Putin visited Minsk, where he met with Lukashenko. The head of Russia's Ministry of Defense Sergey Shoigu also arrived for a meeting with his Belarusian colleague.
• After that, American analysts said that the self-proclaimed president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, probably refused Vladimir Putin to make further integration concessions during a meeting in Minsk.
• On December 20, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported that the military of Belarus and the Russian Federation continued to be deployed near the borders with Ukraine. And the commander of Ukraine's United Forces, Lieutenant General Serhiy Nayev, emphasized that the level of military threat from Belarus is gradually increasing.
• Subsequently, the spokesman of the State Border Guard Service, Andriy Demchenko, in a comment for Espreso, said that the situation along the border with Belarus and in the border area remains under control; no movement or sharp increase of military equipment or manpower has been recorded, and the border has been strengthened as much as possible.
• However, there was information from the Belarusian Hajun monitoring project that Russia has started transferring to southern Belarus the equipment that was previously brought to the training grounds with the mobilized Russian Armed Forces. On December 20, the transportation of tanks, trucks and personnel of the Russian armed forces from Belarusian training grounds in the northern and central parts of the country was recorded. However, the spokesman of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine emphasized that there was no sharp increase in military equipment or personnel of the Russian military near the Belarusian-Ukrainian border.