Lukashenko rejects Putin's efforts to further Russian-Belarusian integration — ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports.

Putin and Lukashenko refrained from publicly discussing the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with both leaders noting that "Belarus still faces a Western threat."

Putin said that he may consider training Belarusian combat aviation crews in the use of "munitions with special warheads" due to the "escalation of the situation" on external borders of the Union state.

Analysts note that previously ISW assessed that Lukashenko uses the rhetoric of protecting Belarus' borders from the West and NATO, trying to avoid participation in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Lukashenko also used similar hints about the possible placement of nuclear weapons in Belarus on February 17 in the context of the West's declared aggression".

The self-proclaimed president of Belarus noted that Russia will supply S-400 air defense systems and Iskander systems, and Putin said that the two leaders discussed the formation of a single defense space.

Experts suggest that Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko probably deflected Russian President Vladimir Putin's efforts to force Belarus to make further Russian-Belarusian integration concessions during a meeting in Minsk on December 19.

So ISW continues to assess that Belarus' involvement in Putin's war against Ukraine remains unlikely.

The report says that the fact that Putin appears to have accepted Lukashenko's theses without persuading Lukashenko to adjust them indirectly supports this assessment. Lukashenko would likely adjust his rhetoric to give his people some plausible explanation for why he suddenly turned away from the bogus threat of NATO invasion, which he fabricated to join Putin's disastrous invasion of Ukraine.

Kremlin also tried to hide Putin's alleged initial intentions to force Lukashenka to make further concessions on integration with Russian Federation. In particular, Putin said that "Russia is not interested in absorbing anyone" when it comes to Belarus. The statement came after Lukashenka reasserted Belarus' independence and full sovereignty on December 16, and appears to be a defensive reaction to Lukashenko's comments.

Thus, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov also stated that Putin did not go to Belarus to persuade Lukashenko to enter the war, adding that "such speculations are baseless and stupid."

The Institute added that Peskov strongly denied Putin's intention to invade Ukraine a few days before the start of the offensive. Certainly, this denial is an attempt to hide Putin's desperate desire to drag Lukashenko into war and his obvious failure – once again – to do so.