Five questions about 2025

Will the Russian-Ukrainian war end?

My expectations: No, it will not end. Not even with a freeze.

Russia still has the capacity to wage war, thanks to its ability to mobilize human resources and produce and supply weapons. Ukraine, on the other hand, is ramping up its own weapons production and continues to receive support from its allies.

For Putin, ending the war in a way that could be seen as a defeat is unacceptable due to the threat it poses to his domestic legitimacy. Ukraine, in turn, cannot accept the terms Russia is currently offering.

President-elect Trump has not shown that he has the means to force Putin into making concessions.

It’s possible that by the end of the year, both sides will be feeling the strain of exhaustion. However, it would take months to implement any hypothetical agreements, and so far, neither side has shown a willingness to start that process.

What could change the current trend? Increased support and/or pressure from Western countries on Russia, or a rapid internal collapse in either Russia or Ukraine. The former seems unlikely, and the latter is impossible to predict.

Will the Russian economy face a systemic crisis?

My expectations: Yes, it is. The Russian economy is undergoing a systemic crisis and is heading towards collapse.

The Russian economy has long been plagued by the “Dutch disease” — where over-reliance on raw material exports damages other sectors of the economy. This led to stagnation as early as 2012.

Today, the Russian economy is overheated, and its “growth” is driven solely by military spending. This inevitably results in rising inflation, labor shortages, and an uncontrollable budget deficit. Oil and gas revenues can’t offset demographic and other fundamental economic issues, even in the medium term. The overheated economy cannot stabilize without reducing military expenditures.

Will a full-fledged trade war between the U.S. and China break out?

My expectations: No, it will not. While the risk of a full-fledged trade war may rise, the U.S. and China remain economically interdependent, which acts as a restraint on escalation.

However, U.S. protectionist policies and China's ambitions to dominate high-tech sectors will heighten tensions and lead to a series of localized trade conflicts.

The focus will be on artificial intelligence and semiconductors, where the U.S. will continue to restrict China, while China will target U.S. vulnerabilities, especially access to rare metals.

Will another big war break out somewhere in the world?

My expectations: Yes, it will.

Tensions between Israel and Iran remain high, and a potential conflict could involve the United States and Saudi Arabia. Additionally, several flashpoints in South Asia - such as India-Pakistan, Pakistan-Afghanistan, and Iran-Afghanistan - could escalate at any time.

I wouldn't rule out a "black swan" event in Africa, with possible flare-ups between Algeria and Morocco, the ongoing civil war in Sudan, and the ever-present risk of escalation in the Congo, where the world's second-largest reserves of rare metals are located.

While China continues to expand its military presence in the South China Sea, I consider a Chinese war with Taiwan or the Philippines unlikely next year.

Will Alternative for Germany join the parliamentary coalition?

My expectations: No, it will not. This will at least delay the legitimization of fascists and far-right populists in German federal politics and across Europe.

The AfD may improve its position significantly in the February elections. However, even with a strong result, the party is likely to remain in opposition, as other parties reject its stance.

Given the current polling, the most likely coalition options are a "black-green" (CDU + Greens) or a "grand coalition" (CDU + SPD). The former would be perfect for Ukraine, while the latter would be acceptable.

Source

About the author. Yurii Bohdanov, publicist, specialist in strategic communications.

The editorial staff does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.