Drone warfare: What interesting things 2025 has in store 

1. Drones capable of intercepting Shaheds are expected to emerge. While the effectiveness of Shahed-type drones (long-range UAVs powered by internal combustion engines) will likely decline on both sides, this will not entirely resolve the issue. In fact, the problem of Shaheds may persist for at least the next six months, if not longer.

2. Finally, a mass-produced Ukrainian counterpart to the Lancet—though not an exact analog—will emerge: a kamikaze drone with a strike range of up to 70 km or more. This innovation has the potential to significantly change the rules of the game.

3. On the battlefield, we will witness the deployment of systems designed to protect armored vehicles from FPV drones (both radio-controlled and fiber-optic) by mechanically neutralizing the drone upon approach. As a result, armored vehicles will gradually return to the battlefield, reclaiming positions previously lost to the dominance of drones.

 4. “New” Ukrainian missiles (i.e., both jet-powered drones and classic missiles) will go into production in small series. But I would not expect miracles from them.

5. In the second half of 2025, a system may be developed that will allow Ukraine to destroy small reconnaissance drones such as Mavic at very low cost, just as Ukraine's air force is now destroying Russian reconnaissance wings. 

6. I don't believe that someone from Ukraine's top leadership will give the command to spam Russia with inexpensive analogs of the Gerbera (Russian decoy drones that deplete enemy air defense), because on the Ukrainian side, war planning takes place at the level of relatively small units. Large operations (such as the daily bombardment of Ukraine with hundreds of Shaheds) and extensive planning are still available only to Russia.

In general, in 2025, drones will become less and less comfortable on the battlefield, they will increasingly destroy each other and suffer from specialized anti-drone weapons.

Source

About the author. Ihor Lutsenko, journalist, Ukrainian Armed Forces serviceman

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.