Involvement of DPRK military shows effective support for Russia’s war isn’t growing — sociologist Shulha

This statement was made by Doctor of Sociology Oleksandr Shulha, head of the Institute for Conflict Studies and Analysis of Russia (IKAR), during an interview on Espreso TV.

"Support for the war within Russian society needs to be viewed in two parts: formal and effective support. Formal support remains high, but the willingness to fight and capture Ukraine is significantly lower. Effective support isn’t increasing. This is evident from the rise in one-time payments from 200,000 to 3 million rubles, the involvement of DPRK military forces, and the drop in military recruitment rates. But we cannot afford to relax — Ukraine won’t be in a stronger position without continuous support in military weapons, even as Russia’s resources decline," Shulha explained.

The imbalance between Ukraine’s and Russia’s resources was evident long before the full-scale invasion began. What matters now are the intensity and phases of the war, Shulha pointed out.

"The current phase isn’t extremely intense, but the pace set by the Russian army is staggering in terms of manpower and equipment losses. It’s clear Russia can’t sustain intensive combat operations on a wide front — East, South, Kursk, and North Ukraine — simultaneously. They’ve focused their efforts on the East. The real question is whether Russia understands Trump’s proposals and whether they can sell something as a victory to their population. Our research shows the Russian public is highly susceptible — they could even accept a return to the status quo from before February 24, 2022," the sociologist said.

Shulha noted that the Kremlin seems to believe it holds a strong position. However, no concrete proposals from Trump to either the Kremlin or Kyiv have been made public so far. As a result, Russia is likely to keep escalating, trying to portray itself as having endless resources for a prolonged war, even though this isn’t true.

• On Friday, December 27, White House spokesperson John Kirby stated that North Korean troops are suffering heavy losses on Russia’s front lines in the war against Ukraine.