Ukrainian forces are unlikely to capture Kursk atomic station – The Economist

The Economist reported, citing a source in the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Since the start of the operation on August 6, Russia has lost control of at least 350 square kilometers of its territory. Scores of Russian soldiers have been killed or captured.

On August 7th, Russia's top general, Valery Gerasimov, said that a force of around 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been stopped. However, foreign journalists doubt this statement. According to The Economist, Ukraine has committed units from at least four elite brigades, indicating that the strike force is likely much larger.

The whole operation was totally secret. A Ukrainian General Staff source told media he didn’t know the full picture. “We were told to pack our bags on August 4th,” he said. “The bosses didn’t say where we were headed, and we still only see part of it.”

An intelligence source added that the successes of operation paralyzed Russia and made to use elite soldiers in dangerous ways to stop the offensive.

“The Russians are making very stupid errors and it’s all down to their corrupt top-down management which prioritizes good news over the truth,” the source told The Economist. 

According to the media, the Kursk incursion became “fourth big failure” of Russia’s generals after Ukraine’s successful operations in Kyiv, Kharkiv regions and Kherson.

Previous cross-border incursions were primarily conducted by Ukraine's military intelligence. This time, the operation is more identified with Ukraine's new commander-in-chief, Oleksandr Syrsky, since regular army units participate in these attacks and General Syrsky's career may be at stake. People may criticize the wisdom of sending so many troops to the incursion while crucial frontlines may collapse. 

The Economist’s General Staff source says Ukraine’s next moves will be determined by Russia’s response. 

Will Russia move reserves from the nearby Kharkiv theatre? Or from the bloody offensive in the Donbas, where Ukraine’s forces are struggling to hold the logistically important town of Pokrovsk? “Either they react and transfer more forces here, or they don’t react and we can move further,” the source said.

Russian social media suggest Ukrainians are aiming to capture the Kursk atomic station as a revenge move against Russia’s occupation of its Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. The Ukrainian source said this is unlikely, as it would require a larger force. 

“Without a properly organized force, you’ll repeat the mistakes the Russians made north of Kyiv in 2022. We cut off their lines and they were easy prey.” 

The journalists underscore - Ukraine has committed mechanized forces, and it can will become a logistical challenge as armored vehicles need fuel and maintenance.

A more realistic goal might be to create an embarrassing “buffer zone” on the border, similar to Russia’s attempts to create one in nearby Kharkiv region. 

Ukraine’s gains could even become a bargaining chip in future negotiation.