Defying odds: Ukraine prevails amid Russia’s 2024 energy terror campaign

Military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko analyzed the impact of Russia's attacks on Ukraine energy infrastructure, Obozrevatel reports.

In December 2024, Russian forces escalated their missile strikes on Ukraine, targeting critical energy infrastructure and other essential civilian facilities. This renewed campaign of "energy terror" was anticipated and marked by both mass attacks and individual strikes, particularly during Christmas and New Year’s Eve.

Missile strikes in December  

Throughout the month, Russia launched a variety of missiles, including the Kh-101/555, Kalibr, and Iskander systems. Of the 199 cruise missiles fired, 173 were intercepted, alongside a mix of ballistic and hypersonic weapons. These strikes followed a predictable pattern, with intervals of one to two weeks between large-scale offensives to allow for reconnaissance and planning.

In 2024, Russia deployed a total of 1,901 missiles, of which nearly half were intercepted. Despite adapting their tactics, including the use of decoy drones to overwhelm air defenses, Ukrainian forces managed to prevent widespread blackouts, maintaining resilience against the assaults.

Drone campaign  

Russia continued its heavy reliance on drones, conducting over 10,000 drone sorties in 2024, with December alone accounting for 1,807. Kamikaze drones like the Shahed-136 were frequently paired with decoys, creating confusion and overestimations of Russia's production capacity. 

FPV drones saw significant use, with 99,350 deployed over the year. Monthly deployment numbers steadily increased, peaking in the fall. However, despite new Chinese export restrictions on dual-use technologies starting in September, drone usage remained consistent, suggesting minimal impact on supply chains.

Lancet munitions  

The use of Lancet loitering munitions significantly declined in 2024. These systems were reserved for long-range targets, while cheaper FPV drones dominated frontline operations due to their cost-effectiveness.

Key takeaways

December's attacks confirmed Russia’s ongoing strategy of energy terror, with a focus on sustaining pressure through drones and missiles. While Ukraine's air defenses demonstrated resilience, the continuation of such tactics into 2025 seems inevitable. The first months of the new year will reveal whether external restrictions, like China's export controls, will meaningfully impact Russia’s capabilities.