Will U.S. deliver all promised funds to Ukraine by Biden's term end? Serhiy Zgurets’ column

Frontline update

I will focus on the situation near Velyka Novosilka, where it is particularly challenging. However, Russia is exerting pressure on multiple frontlines. The situation is difficult across the board, with varying levels of intensity.

                                                                                        Map of combat actions for December 11-18, Photo: Espreso

Russian forces are trying to encircle Velyka Novosilka from different sides. On the map, we see red arrows indicating the directions of attacks. Red also shows the changes over the past week around this settlement. The situation is concerning because Russian troops captured Blahodatne a few days ago, located south of Velyka Novosilka. Afterward, they crossed the Mokri Yaly River to the western bank and are now conducting assault operations between Storozhove and Makarivka.

Makarivka is effectively at risk of being cut off from its supply line to the north, making it one of the most dangerous directions for Ukrainian units. Additionally, Russian troops are attempting another encirclement slightly north of Rivnopillia, aiming to create a second ring of encirclement.

De facto, there is still a possibility to maintain supply lines and advance, but risks for Ukrainian units in this area remain. Additionally, Russian forces had regained certain positions in Novyi Komar, from which they had been driven out by Ukrainian assault units. Novyi Komar is now important because it is located on the route from Velyka Novosilka to the road from Kurakhove to Zaporizhzhia. This is another risky direction of the Russian actions. It essentially indicates that Russian forces are trying to complicate logistics around Velyka Novosilka from multiple directions and create conditions to pressure Ukrainian units, aiming to force them to withdraw from Velyka Novosilka.

It is premature to say what decisions the Ukrainian military will make at this point. However, we can state that this is one of the directions where the risks are significant. We will wait to see what countermeasures the command of Ukraine's Operational and Tactical Units, the Joint Forces Operation, and the brigades currently holding the defense with all the risks of Russian pressure and advance will take. 

U.S. military assistance

The situation on the front largely depends on American assistance and the support of Ukraine's partners in the form of weapons and equipment. A U.S. State Department spokesperson stated yesterday that the funds, equipment, and weapons provided in the $60 billion package (about $41 billion of which is military aid) will direct two-thirds to U.S. companies for the restoration of weapons supplied to Ukraine. According to him, the military aid funds already provided or planned for Ukraine by the end of Joe Biden's term will be sufficient until the end of 2025. However, the State Department did not specify how much of these funds remain.

Later, the Pentagon spokesperson commented that there is still $5.5 billion remaining, which has not been used. She hopes that most of these funds will be transferred by the end of Biden's term, with the remainder passing to the next administration. She also noted that these funds or military assistance will be provided in the future.

There is also $1.2 billion that needs to be contracted by U.S. companies for the production of weapons for the U.S. military, as well as for compensation or directly for Ukraine. It is hoped that these funds will be contracted by the end of January 2025, and in the future, Ukraine will receive new weapons.

It is also known that contracts signed earlier under this package stipulate that new weapons will be delivered in 2025, 2026, and even into 2027. This means that a significant amount of new weaponry will be supplied to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Military aid from Germany

When we talk about weapons, of course, we cannot overlook Germany and the new decisions from the German government. In this context, we often discuss the politicized TAURUS, but on the other hand, it is important to note that Germany remains a consistent and reliable partner in supplying weapons and military equipment.

During this time, weapons worth over €5 billion have been supplied. Recent reports from Rheinmetall indicate that the company has received an order from the German government to repair and supply 20 Marder 1A3 infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine.

                                                                                                         Marder infantry fighting vehicle, Photo: gettyimages

The Marder infantry fighting vehicles are excellent machines, currently used in at least 5 of Ukraine's military units. Previously, around 140 Marders were provided to Ukraine, and 20 more will be delivered in the first quarter of 2025. This is a significant reinforcement for Ukrainian airborne, mechanized, and other brigades that are currently using this equipment.

It is also interesting that Rheinmetall is establishing and has already set up repair facilities in Ukraine that handle the repair of Western military equipment, including German-made designs. Rheinmetall plans to build a plant for the production of powders and ammunition in Ukraine. Additionally, the head of Rheinmetall announced that Ukraine will receive 10 new Lynx infantry fighting vehicles by the end of the year.

Lynx is a new development by Rheinmetall, a modern and powerful infantry fighting vehicle. The delivery of ten vehicles is just the first step, as Rheinmetall believes Ukraine's need for IFVs reaches approximately 3,000 units. With little time left until the end of the year, I hope that the statements of the Rheinmetall leader will be realized, and the Lynx vehicles will add to the already substantial list of IFVs from various manufacturers currently used by the Ukrainian army on the battlefield.

Russian informational influence

When we talk about combat operations, we usually focus on weapons, but no less important is the impact of information on the Russian and Ukrainian population, especially information related to what is happening on the battlefield or around events directly linked to Russia's aggression against Ukraine.

Hryhoriy Liubovets, co-founder of the NGO "Center for Communication and Content Security," candidate of historical sciences, and associate professor, emphasized that the events in Syria and the war in Ukraine are interconnected, as communication and content perceptions transcend national and geostrategic boundaries. He explained that diplomacy often operates within the framework of past international law, where sovereignty and national borders were also applied to informational sovereignty, adhering to the principle of "one's own for one's own." Today, we live in an era of hyperdynamics, where thoughts, content, and videos rapidly move through all levels of society, shaping the understanding of current events.

The co-founder of the NGO "Center for Communication and Content Security" shared that Ukraine has already recorded over 4,000 cases of the Russian military using chemical weapons on the front lines, which sets a precedent and for which the global community should hold accountability. Recently, the Russian general Kirillov, who was eliminated in Moscow, was highly active in spreading content, claiming that Ukraine was preparing combat geese and mosquitoes. Meanwhile, Kirillov himself was involved in the use and development of new types of weapons that are completely banned by international conventions worldwide.

The scholar pointed out that there is currently a battle of communication and content aimed at proving that Putin's regime is both an accomplice and financier of terror. Experts generally view it as a source of terrorism and, in today's context, even barbarism. At the UN level, it is acknowledged that Putin's regime is responsible for war crimes and atrocities. While "atrocity" may have once been a literary term, it has now become a technological one, as Russian forces operate with barbarism. When they display their crimes, they attempt to frame them as actions committed by Ukrainians. Ukraine must improve its public representation on the global stage, both in terms of military and combat processes. However, this is challenging because its partners see this as a war of civilizational scale, with Ukraine defending the future of the planet. These are not mere lofty words but a reflection of the technology and responsibility Ukraine now carries. Before Ukraine stands a collective aggressor that is rapidly developing and growing, posing a threat not only to Ukraine but to the entire world.

Liubovets added that the events in the Kursk region illustrate that it is part of the aggressor's territory, which is met with an appropriate response from Ukraine. Ukraine is demonstrating that the conventionally defined Russian Federation is not a functioning state. The aggressor's regime fails to protect its own people; instead, it destroys them. On the Kursk front, Russia is using cluster bombs (KABs) and artillery shelling, and now it has also begun involving North Korean soldiers. It is crucial to highlight how soldiers from another part of the world are being used in psychological attacks, sent by the hundreds into mined territories where they are destroyed. This is then covered up to once again show how insignificant people are in the eyes of the aggressor. In essence, Russia is using its own people as a resource for absolute barbarism.