Trump tests new method of communication with Putin

Instead of saying, "I will tell him to stop the war…" or "If he doesn’t listen, I’ll give Ukraine unlimited weapons…", today there is a sense of uncertainty with the phrase, "It all depends on Putin." However, this does not mean that America has become weaker; it simply means the next president is still defining priorities.

Recently, Trump once again attempted to respond to questions about his strategy for ending the conflict in Ukraine. His position appeared rather passive: "Well... there’s only one strategy, and it depends on Putin..." Then came his hope that the Kremlin dictator must be tired of the mess of the war: "I can’t imagine he’s thrilled with how things have turned out; it hasn’t gone very well for him either." 

The 47th President of the United States is trying to present himself as controlling the situation regarding the "deal of the century"—achieving peace in Ukraine. He claims he plans to meet with Putin "very quickly" after taking office, with a communication channel to the Russian dictator fully operational, much like the "Nord Stream" before it was sabotaged by unknown actors. Congressman Mike Waltz, a future national security advisor, clarified that a meeting between the presidents is expected in the coming days or weeks, and preparations are "in full swing."

However, the Kremlin is turning its nose up at such diplomatic overtures from Mar-a-Lago (Trump’s residence). They claim that no substantial preparations are being made for a meeting, there are no preconditions for such negotiations, and it's too early to discuss anything before the 20th (the day of the inauguration).

Translated from the Kremlin's language into human terms, this means one thing: the Russians will take their time, and they are going to hand Trump a hefty bill for his desire to rush a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine.

While the 47th president is in a hurry, trying to reshape the world (at least making such claims), aiming to punish China for all its economic sins and reformat the political mood map of Europe, the ongoing war in Ukraine ties his hands. However, "quick deals" are not forthcoming. Meanwhile, not only Ukraine but also Old Europe is rubbing its hands in satisfaction. According to Bloomberg's article "Europe Grows More Optimistic Trump Won’t Abandon Ukraine," Trump—judging by all indications—will not force Kyiv into premature negotiations with Russia.

The article discusses not only the sentiments within the future president's team, but also his personal safeguards: Trump risks facing humiliation similar to that of Biden during the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan. Secondly, if Russia wins in Ukraine, it will motivate China to take more aggressive actions. 

It seems that while Trump is edging closer to Putin on soft paws, he is also attempting to implement an alternative strategy. For example, he is notably not responding to the Biden team’s sanctions on Russia’s shadow tanker fleet, which has allowed the Kremlin to bypass, or rather "float around," all previous attempts to stop the export of Russian oil. Tanker sanctions are considered one of the most painful measures throughout the full-scale war.

This is not the last metamorphosis in Trump’s political strategy, and one should not have illusions about his relations with Putin. It’s important to know that currently, Trump is at a negative level of relations with the Kremlin, and things will become clearer after January 20, inauguration day. We should not forget that while we all wish for the war to end, a "peace in three days" scenario could prove dangerous.

• Manhattan University Professor Igor Aizenberg believes that if Donald Trump speaks with Putin soon without unveiling new pressure tactics on Russia, it will signal U.S. weakness

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About the author. Orest Sohar, journalist, editor-in-chief of Obozrevatel