How Israel-Hamas ceasefire, Trump's inauguration, and Ukraine are interconnected

The author of the Resurgam Telegram channel discussed the issue.

The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas appears to be Netanyahu's strategic gesture toward Trump, as key steps like troop withdrawal and demarcation align with his inauguration. This allows Trump to present the deal as an early diplomatic success, showcasing his administration's influence and ties with the Israeli prime minister.

This will also strategically divert attention from unwanted questions about Ukraine, as neither before the inauguration nor within 24 hours after it will Trump fulfill his campaign promises. Instead, Trump's team will focus public attention on the Israel agreement and its implementation, the author believes.

What does the Middle East peace agreement mean for Ukraine?

• Geopolitical aspect: The peace agreement strengthens the West's position, reduces potential conflicts between Arab nations and Western countries, and improves prospects for resolving issues like sanctions and oil.
• Economic aspect: The deal lowers tension in the Middle East, reducing oil price volatility caused by market speculation and paving the way for stabilization amid ongoing sanctions against Russia.
• Internal aspect: While hopes for large-scale Israeli arms sales to Ukraine remain uncertain, the peace agreement may open opportunities for future cooperation and easing restrictions on re-export.

The return of Yair Lapid instead of Netanyahu would not necessarily meet Ukraine's expectations, as Lapid fears Putin, the author says. On a positive note, opposition parties’ criticism of Netanyahu’s ties to Putin and refusal to arm Ukraine may create pressure for increased military aid to Ukraine.

Is there any combination of "cards" (government actions) that guarantees success for Ukraine-centric needs? Such a combination does not exist, the author argues. However, a static arrangement of "cards" will not change the situation either.

Therefore, from a Ukraine-centric perspective, the potential collapse of the coalition and the shuffling of cards is rather a positive development that offers a vague chance.