Biden trap: cost of delayed decisions in Ukraine’s fight for survival

"Powerful" energy sanctions at the start of 2024 would have reduced Russia’s capabilities by the fall of 2024, and these same sanctions in 2023 might have seriously disrupted Russia's plans for 2024.

In his book War, Woodward shows how Biden and his team were only focused on one thing — "avoiding nuclear war," and consequently, preventing a defeat of Putin that could make it possible. At the same time, their strategy was to give Ukraine just enough support so that Putin wouldn't win. In the final days of his presidency, Biden decided to demonstrate the full absurdity of this approach. By allowing Ukraine to strike Russian territory, providing maximum support, and imposing "powerful" sanctions — he avoided nuclear war, meaning he could have done all of this earlier but didn't.

This flawed approach led to the "Biden trap," in which Ukraine now finds itself. The issue is that Russia cannot win a long-term war against the West. Comparing the resources of the West to this "gas station," as the honorable McCain put it, is pointless. It's impossible even with China's support and high oil prices.

A war of attrition will always be a strategic loss for the Russians, but there’s one catch. Each year, Russians will become less capable of competing with the West in ammunition, equipment volumes, equipment quality, drones, and more. As the recipient of these resources, Ukraine could start dominating Russia in these areas over time. However, there is one factor in which we can never dominate — human resources. This is where the "Biden trap" lies: Ukraine could win this war in the long term with Western technologies and aid, but it may lose it sooner due to a lack of manpower.

Providing Ukraine with aircraft in 2022, authorizing strikes on Russian territory, and imposing the toughest sanctions before its counteroffensive could have saved tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers' lives. These measures would either have brought the war closer to an end or at least allowed Ukraine to fight until Russia began to collapse. For these reasons, the Biden administration has started publicly discussing lowering the conscription age.

Unfortunately, the reality is that to endure this war, Ukraine must mobilize more people, partially because of the "Biden trap." The only viable solution is to lower the conscription age. Time works against Putin in everything except manpower. Lowering the conscription age is a signal to him that he won’t win and a message to Trump that Ukraine is determined to fight for its future and should not be discounted.

I know I don’t have much good news for you, but I firmly believe that Ukraine can emerge victorious from this war. Victory, for me, isn’t defined by the borders of 1991 or the destruction of Russia’s army. It’s about one thing: preserving Ukraine's state with a strong military. Achieving that will be our triumph.

Source

About the author. Victor Andrusiv, political and public figure, analyst, columnist.

The editorial board does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.