Ukraine’s strike on Kazan aircraft plant raises doubts over Russia’s production capabilities

According to Defense Express, while publicly available information currently only confirms the fact of a UAV strike on the Kazan Aircraft Production Association (KAPO), the incident raises important questions about Russia's ability to produce new Tu-22M3 and Tu-160 bombers, presenting a paradox in their defense industry.

As Defense Express reports, Russia currently lacks the capacity to produce brand-new Tu-160 and Tu-22M3 bombers from scratch. Instead, to assemble what it labels as "new" aircraft of these types, Russia relies heavily on Soviet-era "stockpiles" that have been dormant at KAPO for decades. This process is often referred to as "reproduction" in Russian propaganda circles.

Specifically, regarding the Tu-160, Defense Express notes that between 2022 and 2023, Russia assembled three bombers under the Tu-160M designation using these Soviet-era reserves. Furthermore, prior to February 2022, one operational Tu-160 aircraft was undergoing modernization at KAPO, also being designated as Tu-160M.

The paradox lies in the fact that these four Tu-160M bombers, capable of carrying up to 12 cruise missiles each, are now expected to enter service with the Russian Aerospace Forces only in 2025. This delay comes despite the fact that all four planes were initially scheduled for delivery by 2023.

This suggests that there are likely issues with the engines and onboard systems of these bombers, leaving KAPO formally able to present the completed Tu-160Ms to the military, but rendering them unusable for their intended purpose. Instead, they’ve been used merely as props during propaganda events, such as Putin’s visit to the Kazan plant in February 2024.

The situation surrounding the modernized Tu-22M3M becomes even more puzzling. Defense Express notes that the first Tu-22M3M variant was rolled out in 2018, and the second followed in March 2023. However, these remain the only two aircraft of this variant. Despite this, KAPO's leadership announced by late 2023 an ambitious but unrealized plan to equip all operational Tu-22Ms in the Russian Aerospace Forces with aerial refueling probes.

The significance of the Kazan Aircraft Production Association, as Defense Express highlights, cannot be overstated. KAPO is one of Russia's largest defense industry enterprises, employing as many as 8,500 people. The recent strike on this facility, therefore, raises concerns not just about the production of these bombers, but also about the overall stability of Russia's defense industry and its capacity to maintain and modernize its aerospace fleet.