Could Russia launch strikes on Europe following truce in Ukraine war?

Military and political observer Oleksandr Kovalenko has outlined the serious risks posed by a potential ceasefire in the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia, mentioning that such a pause could significantly enhance Russia's military capabilities.

 Kovalenko emphasizes that a year-long break from active combat would provide Russia with the opportunity to rebuild its military forces and replenish its stocks of military hardware, which would greatly increase its threat not only to Ukraine but also to other European countries. The observer points out that, given the current state of Russia's arms industry, largely operating on Soviet-era technology, a year without fighting would enable them to restore and modernize their weapons systems to a substantial degree.

Kovalenko notes that, during this potential "pause," Russia would be able to rebuild its forces, including increasing its inventory of tanks, armored personnel carriers, artillery systems, and missiles. Specifically, he estimates that Russia's tanks could increase from 3,200 to as many as 4,500 units, and the number of armored vehicles could rise to between 9,000 and 10,000. Furthermore, Russia would significantly bolster its missile stockpile, including cruise missiles like the Kh-101 and Kalibr, potentially reaching up to 1,000 units. These weapons would be complemented by substantial ammunition stocks, sourced not only from Russia’s own military production, but also from foreign supplies, including Iran and North Korea, with over 10 million rounds of various calibers expected to be added to Russia's arsenal.

The replenished military stockpiles and mobilized human resources would make it possible for Russia to form a ground force of 1.1 to 1.2 million troops. With such a force, Russia would be well-positioned to pose an even greater threat to Ukraine and beyond. Kovalenko warns that the prospect of a "pause" in hostilities would offer Russia the ability to strategically position itself with significantly enhanced combat power compared to its 2022 capabilities.

Looking beyond Ukraine, Kovalenko presents a chilling scenario of Russia potentially revisiting its plans for an invasion of Europe. He reminds that, in 2022, Russia had considered breaking through the Suwalki Corridor — a key land route connecting the Kaliningrad region to the rest of Russia. Kovalenko suggests that, given the strength of Russia’s rebuilt forces, this plan could become a reality. With a much stronger military, Russia would be capable of launching a well-coordinated offensive in Eastern Europe, with Poland likely to be the first target.

The Russian strategy could involve advancing through the Suwalki Corridor, which stretches approximately 70-100 kilometers from Belarus to Kaliningrad, and quickly seizing this vital area to secure a land bridge for Russian forces. The expert highlights that such a corridor could be breached within a matter of days, with Russian forces potentially mobilizing 100,000 soldiers and hundreds of tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery pieces to overwhelm Poland's defenses. Given Russia's readiness to sacrifice troops and disregard the value of human lives, Kovalenko argues that Poland would be unable to effectively counter this kind of assault, especially with its comparatively smaller military.

Kovalenko warns that this invasion could extend beyond Poland, with Russian forces targeting the Baltic nations as well. The Russian military could launch simultaneous offensives with the support of the Baltic Fleet, deploying amphibious forces to capture key cities like Tallinn and threatening Riga. Such an offensive could see the occupation of the Baltic States within two weeks, followed by a significant territorial shift in Eastern Europe, with parts of northeastern Poland also falling under Russian control.

However, Kovalenko also underscores the challenges this scenario would bring for Russia. Despite the significant numerical superiority in terms of manpower and military equipment, the operation would come at a heavy cost for Russia, resulting in the loss of substantial amounts of military hardware and personnel. Yet, the expert believes that Russia's mobilization system, strengthened by almost three years of total war with Ukraine, would allow them to replace these losses in the initial months of such an operation, thus preserving their fighting capacity.

Ultimately, Kovalenko raises a critical question for global decision-makers: should the international community allow Russia to rebuild its military strength during a ceasefire, or should it act decisively to prevent the further escalation of the war? Allowing Russia to gather its forces in such a way could lead to an even bloodier war, including a potential invasion of European territories. On the other hand, taking preemptive action to weaken Russia's position could prevent a broader European war and, in Kovalenko's view, possibly avert the onset of a devastating third world war. He argues that the time for NATO to act is now, as any delay could see Russian forces break through the Suwalki Corridor, gaining a significant foothold in Europe and expanding its military influence across the region.

• Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz has dismissed the idea of deploying Polish troops to Ukraine to aid the fight against occupying Russian forces