North Korea prepares second wave of troops to aid Russia in Ukraine war

Military and political observer with the Information Resistance Group Oleksandr Kovalenko expressed this opinion on his Telegram channel.

According to Kovalenko, the first units consisting of North Korean soldiers began participating in combat operations in Russia's Kursk region, primarily within the 810th Marine Brigade, from late October to early November 2024, but in very limited numbers. The peak involvement of North Koreans occurred in December 2024.

As of November 1, 2024, a total of 970 square kilometers of Kursk region were under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and in the gray zone. Currently, the Ukrainian troops control zone and the gray zone together cover 630 square kilometers.

In fact, the majority of losses occurred in December and the first half of January. However, even considering November, the average loss rate is around 60 casualties per day. If calculated correctly, considering the initial phase and the current average figures, we are talking about 80-90 casualties per day. Roughly speaking, this amounts to a company per day.

The analyst notes that no Russian formation, participating in the narrow section of the front, has suffered such large-scale losses. The 12,000 soldiers sent to Russia from North Korea represent, by Russian standards, an understrength army corps. However, during the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, no Russian army corps has sustained losses at the level of a 30% loss of combat effectiveness in such a short period of time. To reduce an army corps by a third in two months requires a certain level of skill.

“Therefore, the second wave of North Korean infantry is inevitable, and it will arrive much sooner than the remaining 12,000 troops are wiped out. Especially since the command of the Northern Group of Forces has failed to complete the assigned task - to regain control over the entire Kursk region before the inauguration of Donald Trump, which will not happen in the near future, even after this significant event. This is even without considering the quagmire in which the "Lapintsy" forces are stuck in the north of Kharkiv region, between Lyptsi and Vovchansk,” Kovalenko concludes.