Ukraine alerts Trump: early peace talks could be disastrous

Ukrainian officials have cautioned that putting pressure on Ukraine to deal with Russia before acquiring a military edge would be a fatal error, ahead of Donald Trump's inauguration. 

The Telegraph mentions that as President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office, Ukraine is urging the United States to provide continued support in its fight against Russia, warning that any push for early peace talks could be catastrophic. President Zelensky is concerned that a refusal to negotiate with Russia could lead to a reduction in U.S. military aid, emphasizing the need for more time and resources to strengthen Ukraine’s position before any discussions.

Advisers to Zelenskyy have stated that allowing Russia to gain an upper hand on the battlefield before negotiations would only embolden President Putin, destabilize Ukraine, and undermine Western interests. They argue that only by inflicting significant losses on Russia will Ukraine be in a position to negotiate from strength. 

Mykhailo Podolyak mentioned that Ukraine cannot give away the initiative to Russia. He explains that ongoing attacks on Russian infrastructure, especially its oil refineries, are having a major impact on the Russian economy, which is Putin's primary vulnerability. Podolyak stresses the importance of maintaining this pressure to ensure that Russia enters talks under duress, not by choice.

Ukraine has been targeting key parts of Russia’s refinery sector, which makes up a significant portion of the country's economy. While it is unclear how much damage has been done due to Russia’s secrecy about oil production data, Ukrainian forces have managed to shut down major refineries, such as the Novoshakhtinsk plant, multiple times. However, Ukrainian officials note that Russia has been able to quickly repair its facilities, and additional Western support is needed to intensify the pressure.

Zelenskyy’s government has been actively lobbying the incoming U.S. administration since Trump's victory, hoping to secure continued military support. Ukrainian officials are particularly concerned that Trump, who previously expressed interest in negotiating directly with Putin, may repeat the mistakes of the Biden administration’s withdrawal from Afghanistan. They warn that allowing Russia to weaken Ukraine would not only harm the country but also weaken the West’s position globally.

Although Trump has previously suggested a quick resolution to the war, he now acknowledges that it may take up to six months to resolve. Some reports indicate that Trump is motivated by the prospect of winning a Nobel Peace Prize, which he feels he deserves for resolving the "Ukraine crisis."

Ukrainian officials also mention that any peace talks must include Ukraine, European partners, and Britain, not just Russia and the U.S., with discussions about a potential peacekeeping force in Ukraine. Also important to mention that a ceasefire could only work if Western forces were ready to act decisively if Russia violated the agreement. 

Ultimately, Ukraine believes its long-term security lies in NATO membership, which would offer a sustainable guarantee against Russian aggression. Olena Sotnyk, an adviser to Ukraine’s deputy prime minister, emphasizes that this is the only real security guarantee for the country.

• Advisers to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump now admit that resolving the war in Ukraine will take months, undermining his earlier promise to strike a peace deal on his first day in office.