Mobilization in Ukraine: understanding the logic behind the process

However, the direction of the discussion is clear. Ukraine needs reserves, and that means people. The war has reached a strategic stalemate, where the options are either negotiations — which require holding out long enough — or the use of Wunderwaffe (a "miracle weapon" in German), which Ukraine does not have.

Russia, however, does, in the form of nuclear weapons, hybrid warfare, and bribing the Western establishment. The so-called West has sanctions, more advanced intelligence, and tools like blowing up iPhones (or pagers), but nuclear weapons are not considered an option.

Nuclear weapons would also not bring Russia a strategic victory in the war against Ukraine, and Ukraine's Western partners are avoiding scenarios that could enable their use.

At the same time, Western sanctions are strategically devastating Russia, as even the Kremlin leadership acknowledges.

Thus, the remaining option is to hold out.

Ukraine can only hold out with sufficient reserves, increased arms supplies, and ramped-up domestic weapons production.

Western partners cannot quickly boost arms deliveries, as production is already maxed out, and building new capacities takes time.

Ukraine can increase its weapons production, but there are internal issues regarding efficient budget use.

Even with all the weapons in the world, the question remains: who will operate and deploy them?

We lack infantry. Systems like artillery, electronic warfare (EW), signals intelligence (SIGINT), radar reconnaissance, aviation, etc., require at least a basic knowledge of physics, mathematics, chemistry (a nod to the Ministry of Education, which plans to cut these subjects in schools), aerodynamics, ballistics, and engineering.

So, the following solutions remain. The first is to reduce the age of mobilization to 21 years. The second, as the Russians did, is to offer money for the first contract, which is 50,000 dollars.

The second option would require billions. Russia spends $10 billion for 200,000 soldiers to sign contracts, followed by salaries, bonuses, and other payments. However, Russia has already been forced to reduce compensation for injuries due to financial strain.

Even if Ukraine's partners provided such funds, it would not solve the problem instantly.

This leaves continuing mobilization and lowering the mobilization age.

What I’m saying may be unpleasant, but this is how I see the logic of the process.

On the bright side, Russia is also facing mobilization challenges, and if we hold out, our children will prevail.

Source

About the author. Myroslav Hai, actor, volunteer, Ukrainian Armed Forces soldier, head of the charitable organization Peace and Co. Foundation.

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.