Ukraine cannot defend itself against missiles like Oreshnik. Why Patriot and even THAAD won't help?

Defense Express reports.

Modern air defense systems like Patriot and SAMP-T are designed with specific purposes, but intercepting medium-range ballistic missiles equipped with multiple warheads requires entirely different technologies. Ukraine currently lacks the systems necessary to counter such threats, including missiles like the Oreshnik, as confirmed by Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi.

Patriot PAC-3 and SAMP-T, while highly capable, were developed for intercepting short-range ballistic missiles with flight ranges up to 1,000 km, not medium- or long-range missiles. Their primary limitation lies in their inability to effectively engage targets that travel at extreme speeds and altitudes, such as the mid-course flight phase of medium-range missiles, which occurs above 100 km in space. The reentry speeds of these missiles can reach 3–4 km/s for medium-range and up to 7 km/s for intercontinental types.

While Patriot and SAMP-T can theoretically target missile warheads during atmospheric reentry, their effectiveness is limited, especially against systems like Oreshnik, which deploy multiple independent warheads and decoys. For instance, some attacks involve dozens of targets, including fake warheads, making it challenging for air defense systems to handle them all simultaneously.

The use of multiple warheads is not a novel concept, first introduced by the U.S. Minuteman III in the 1970s, followed by similar developments in the Soviet Union. Despite being an older technology, it remains highly effective because it significantly increases the number of targets requiring interception. Even advanced systems like THAAD, designed to intercept medium-range ballistic missiles in the upper atmosphere or near-space, face constraints in engaging multiple targets simultaneously, though details about its exact capabilities remain classified.

The most reliable way to counter such missiles is to destroy them before their warheads separate, targeting a single object rather than several. Currently, only the SM-3 system, deployed on Aegis-equipped ships or land-based Aegis Ashore systems, offers such capabilities. However, its production and deployment are limited.

This reality underscores NATO’s acknowledgment that building a comprehensive missile defense system in Europe is unrealistic. Instead, the focus must shift to developing long-range offensive missiles as a deterrent.