Ukrainian government’s “unique” decision on ammo procurement for Army. Serhiy Zgurets' column

Germany's military assistance to Ukraine

Good news from Germany: By the end of December, Ukraine will receive additional defense equipment and weapons worth 650 million euros from Germany. Chancellor Olaf Scholz, visiting Kyiv on December 2, stated that Germany remains Ukraine's strongest supporter in Europe, and Ukraine can rely on Germany. "We do what we say," said Scholz.

Indeed, Germany's aid is substantial: three Patriot systems, several IRIS-T air defense systems in different versions, Leopard tanks in various models, modern Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled howitzers, new self-propelled howitzers currently being produced for Ukraine, Marder infantry fighting vehicles, demining machines, and, of course, a significant amount of ammunition.

German defense companies, including the well-known Rheinmetall, plan to establish at least three defense enterprises in Ukraine. One, focused on repairing German-made military equipment, is already operational. By the end of the year, the plant aims to assemble 10 Lynx infantry fighting vehicles, a new German-made model. Additionally, there are plans to set up two more facilities: one for repairing air defense systems and another for ammunition production.

The new weapons package will include IRIS-T air defense systems, Leopard tanks, and strike drones. Notably, Chancellor Scholz was shown a range of drones being developed in Ukraine, including ones resembling Shahed and Lancet models.

Also showcased were drones using a German automatic targeting system powered by artificial intelligence, represented in Ukraine by the company Helsing. There were earlier reports that Helsing drones are akin to small TAURUS missiles. As for larger TAURUS missiles, progress remains stalled, though Zelenskyy noted that Ukraine is working on reaching an agreement with Germany on this matter.

Government's unique decision on ammunition procurement 

The story continues with the need for essential, scarce ammunition for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This concerns the purchase of ammunition through imports based on a decision signed by Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal on November 29 this year. In my view, this is a unique decision, allowing the State Border Guard Service to procure ammunition using funds from the Ministry of Defense for the Ukrainian Army. Such decisions have not been made before, and the amount involved is 23 billion UAH.

This decision is unexpected because the Ministry of Defense agreed to have the State Border Guard Service purchase weapons and ammunition, despite the Ministry already having its own Defense Procurement Agency. The agency was established to minimize costs when procuring scarce weapons and reduce risks during purchases. It specializes in contracts signed either with manufacturers or with companies authorized to supply specific types of weapons.

According to our information, this time the weapons will be supplied through an intermediary company based in Poland, the name of which we are not revealing for now. The nuance is that this company promises to deliver scarce ammunition in five categories, ranging from mines to mortars, shells for multiple rocket launchers, and also scarce Soviet-caliber shells.

It is claimed that these ammunition supplies will be new, manufactured in 2024-2025. The volumes declared are quite significant. However, it seems that the readiness to supply these quantities of ammunition from this Polish company may even exceed what some European manufacturers can produce in a year. Nevertheless, we know that all European factories already have contracted deliveries, so it is surprising that such a company exists, capable of ensuring the supply of these munitions.

At the same time, this company is requesting 100% prepayment for the ammunition supplies. This is also a somewhat unusual detail, as typically contracts involve a prepayment of 10% to 30%. In this case, the prepayment is significantly higher. Additionally, for certain categories of ammunition, the price from this Polish company has increased.

However, these are preliminary conclusions based on an initial review of what is being offered by the Polish company. I hope that the relevant regulatory authorities are aware of this in much greater detail than I am, having spoken with people involved in this decision.

We will continue to monitor the situation, but we must remember various examples, including negative ones, where tens of millions of dollars were transferred, notably to the well-known company Alfa, which promised to supply ammunition for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Currently, there is neither the money nor the ammunition. In my opinion, the government's decision to direct funds for ammunition procurement through the State Border Guard Service seems somewhat unusual. Therefore, we will keep following this issue closely.

Frontline update

Next, we'll discuss the front line. There are several directions that have become extremely challenging recently, including the Kupyansk section of the Kharkiv front, where Russian forces have made some crossings in the area of Dvorichna. In that region, they managed to cross the Oskil River at two points, reaching the western bank to the north and south of Dvorichna.

It can be assumed that efforts are currently underway to push them out of these minor footholds. This was discussed on December 2 by Yuriy Fedorenko, the commander of the UAV strike platoon of Ukraine's Achilles battalion. His unit is operating in this area, targeting and destroying the occupying Russian forces. Fedorenko mentioned that all conditions have been created to expel Russians through the actions of drone operators and other Ukrainian forces.

It can be inferred that Russian troops, by crossing the Oskil River near Dvorichna, intend to pressure Ukrainian units and reserves, forcing them to shift focus to this area. This would weaken the defense around Kupyansk, potentially enabling more powerful attacks on both Kupyansk and Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi. While these are Russia’s objectives, we have countermeasures in place to thwart their plans.

                                                                                                                                      Map of hostilities for November 20-27

Ihor Romanenko, an officer with Ukraine's 3rd Separate Iron Brigade from the Kupyansk direction, stated that the situation remains steadily tense. Russian forces are exerting pressure from the north, south, and east. In Kupyansk, the main task of the city administration is the evacuation of civilians, as the front line is only 2.5 km from the city. Kupyansk is under constant artillery, guided bombs, and FPV drone attacks. In October and November alone, six guided bomb strikes weighing 1.5 tons were carried out on the city center. Russian invading forces are trying to capture this strategically important defensive and transport hub.

The officer noted that Russian troops primarily attack with infantry groups. The appearance of Russian heavy equipment is rare. Due to weather conditions, they use light armored vehicles, BMPs, and MT-LBs to quickly transport infantry to the front line.

The serviceman added that the primary task of tank crews is to hold back the enemy and provide fire support to adjacent units, not only from covered positions but also with direct fire. The key defense measure is electronic warfare (EW), along with other forms of tank protection. At times, quick and risky actions are necessary, especially in areas where Russians try to exploit weaknesses in the brigade’s defenses. Remote mining technologies are continuously utilized and improved, with their effectiveness left for the occupying forces to experience firsthand.

Romanenko highlighted that the Oplot tank, a product of Ukrainian developers, has been well-known to tank crews for years and performs excellently in combat. For instance, its effective firing range reaches up to 4 km, nearly double that of the T-72. Equipped with advanced electronics and protection systems, the Oplot demonstrates top-tier performance.

He emphasized the urgent need for enhanced electronic warfare (EW) capabilities, all types of unmanned systems, including ground-based ones, as well as logistics, specifically the supply, deployment, and maintenance of all types of equipment.