Russia's full-scale invasion was based on flawed intelligence

This opinion was expressed by the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, Kyrylo Budanov, during the "Ukraine. Year 2025" forum.

"As we approach the third anniversary of the full-scale invasion and, in fact, the 11th anniversary of the war between us and the Russian Federation, I would like to mention something interesting. For the first time, let's say, almost three years into the war, the top leadership of the Russian Federation realized the grave mistake they made back in 2022. Why was it a grave mistake? Because they admitted they based their decisions on completely false data. This is a total failure of their special intelligence services," he said.

Kyrylo Budanov noted that Russian analysts relied on false information about how quickly they could seize Ukraine, which ultimately did not happen.

"Basing their conclusions on absolutely false data, their analysts made, quite understandably, unreasonable conclusions, which led to the Russian Federation, when starting the so-called special military operation, actually dreaming of entering Kyiv within three days and, no later than the tenth day, suppressing any resistance across the country, if there was any at all. Ultimately, all of this led to a full-scale war, which, God willing, will reach its third anniversary tomorrow," said the head of the GUR.

• Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate, suggests that a ceasefire in Ukraine could happen as early as 2025.